Thursday 27 June 2013

Can Arsenal win the Premier League next season?


There is no denying that Arsenal were schizophrenic last season. Cup defeats to Bradford and Blackburn were inexcusable, but Wenger’s team finished the season excellently, taking 26 out of a possible 30 points to secure 4th position.

In the end, Arsenal finished with the second best Premier League defensive record, conceding 37 goals. Comparing this with the 49 goals conceded in the 2011/2012 season, a significant improvement has been made. The central-defensive partnership of Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker has flourished and the old cliché of Arsenal not being able to defend is surely out of date now.

In order to mount a title-challenge, it is vital to make a good start. But over the last couple of seasons, Arsenal have made poor starts. This can be attributed to the departures of key-players. For example, after losing Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri in 2011, Arsenal failed to gain domestic form until October. They also stuttered in 2012 after losing Robin van Persie and Alex Song, as it disrupted a major part of the team’s spine.

Arsenal are unlikely to lose a first-team player this summer. It could be argued that this is because Arsenal no longer have any world-class players, meaning that clubs such as Barcelona have no need to swoop. By keeping the nucleus of the team intact, there is no reason why they cannot build on the form that was captured at the end of last season.

However, if Arsenal are to mount a serious title bid, they must buy a world class striker. Although I think Olivier Giroud has been a good signing, he admittedly struggles against the best Premier League teams, and because of this, he should be second-choice up front.

As for a first-choice striker, Wenger will never purchase someone like Edinson Cavani at their current market value, and rightly so in my opinion. Kaká and Fernando Torres were bought at £56 million and £50 million respectively; they both failed to live up to massive expectations.

Gonzalo Higuain has been heavily linked with Arsenal and he would be a superb signing. He should be available at around £22.5 million, which would break Arsenal’s transfer record, but I think he is good value for money. According to transfermarkt.co.uk, he had a market value of £33.5 million in 2011. While this could provide evidence of stagnation, at 25 years old, he would be worth the risk.

Arsenal should also be able to benefit from the managerial changes at the title-contending clubs. It will take a considerable period of time for David Moyes to feel comfortable at Man Utd, and with tough opening fixures, there is, for the first time in many seasons, just a hint of uncertainty at Old Trafford.

To conclude, I do think Arsenal can at least challenge for the Premier League this season. Their defensive frailties appear to be ironed out and with some intelligent signings, such as Higuain, they’ll have a competitive team. While actually winning the Premier League may be a little too optimistic, a second place finish would provide a solid base to build upon for the 2014/2015 season.

By Kelvin Jones
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