UCL Final 2013 Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich

On Saturday, London will finally be invaded by the Germans.

Borussia Dortmund take on Bayern Munich at Wembley. Both teams have been thoroughly impressive in the Champions League this season and are worthy finalists.

You would have to say that Bayern are favourites for Saturday. They absolutely steamrollered the Bundesliga this season, finishing an incredible 25 points ahead of Saturday’s opponents. This feat is even more impressive considering that only 34 matches are played in a Bundesliga season, compared to 38 games in the Premier League and La Liga. They also managed to score 98 goals, while only conceding 18, giving them a gigantic goal difference of +80.

Astonishing stuff. And with Pep Guardiola and Mario Götze joining the club in the summer, FC Hollywood have a real chance of repeating the glory achieved by the Beckenbauer inspired team that lifted the European Cup in 1974, 1975 and 1976.

But with football, you can never tell what will happen. I falsely predicted that Bayern would comfortably beat Chelsea in last season’s final. Bayern also have a tendency to lose European Cup/Champions League finals; they lost in 1982, 1987, 1999 and 2010. If this list was to grow on Saturday, and with last season’s defeat still fresh in the memory, it would have massive psychological implications. There is a strong possibility of this happening, as Dortmund are an excellent side.

But Mario Götze has a hamstring injury and is ruled out of the final. But I believe that even a fully fit Götze shouldn’t play. In a Champions League final, you need eleven players that are 100% committed. This simply cannot be ensured if Götze plays. He obviously wouldn’t play badly deliberately, but by agreeing to join Bayern, he has made it abundantly clear that he does not want to play for Dortmund. Imagine what would happen if he had to take a penalty in a shootout?

I believe Bayern will win on Saturday. They have a good record over Dortmund this season with two wins and two draws. However, I would like Dortmund to win. The humorous Jürgen Klopp has assembled a young but outstanding team on a small budget and the club, from a neutral point of view at least, seem to be more likeable than their Bavarian rivals. Despite this, I can still see Bayern winning, albeit by a single goal.

By Kelvin Jones

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Kelvin and Alex's Predictions

Last August Kelvin and Alex predicted how the table would look come the end of the season. Now that the last Premier League fixtures have been played for the best part of 90 days we are capable of assessing who was most accurate. You can find Kelvin's predicted table here and Alex's here, also of use may be the final Premier League table, which you can view in full here.

There are, as far as I see it, three ways in which to assess the accuracy of our tables;
1.) How close to correct we were in predicting the Champions League places and relegation spots
2.) How many team's final positions we guessed correctly
3.) The cumulative difference between predicted positions and final positions for each team

1.) On the left is Kelvins predicted top four and bottom three, on the right is Alex's.

1st - Manchester City (2nd)                          1st - Manchester United (1st)

2nd - Manchester United (1st)                      2nd - Manchester City (2nd)

3rd - Arsenal (4th)                                       3rd - Chelsea (3rd)

4th - Chelsea (3rd)                                       4th - Arsenal (4th)

-                                                                  -

-                                                                  -

18th - Wigan (18th)                                      18th - Wigan (18th)

19th - Swansea (9th)                                    19th - Southampton (14th)

20th - Southampton (14th)                            20th - West Ham (10th)

Both predicted the top four teams correctly, however Alex predicted the precise order, Kelvin didn't get one in the correct position. Both predicted that Wigan would finish 18th, both incorrectly predicted the other two relegated teams. 

Due to the more accurate top four Alex wins this round.

2.) Kelvin correctly predicted that Liverpool would finish 7th, that Fulham would finish 12th and that Wigan would finish 18th. This gives him three exact predictions.

Alex Predicted the top four exactly, Everton's 6th place finish and Wigan's 18th place finish. This makes six exact predictions.

Alex Wins this round.

3.) Kelvin's cumulative difference totals 78, with his farthest from the truth guess being Newcastle finishing 5th, which is 11 positions too high.

Alex's cumulative difference comes to 66, with two predictions 11 places incorrect (Newcastle and QPR).

As his total is 12 lower than Kelvin's Alex wins this round.

A clean sweep for Alex, for next years predictions all four CTF writers will contribute and see if Alex can retain his crown.

EDIT

Mark Lawrenson of the BBC also made a predicted table before the season began, that can be found here.

His top four contains all of the correct teams, however three of them are in the wrong position, making his top four prediction better than Kelvin's but worse than Alex's. Lawrenson, just like Alex and Kelvin predicted only one relegated team correctly, but his prediction for Reading to finish 20th was not exaxtly right, unlike both Kelvin and Alex's prediction of an 18th place Wigan finish.

Lawrenson only got one exact position correct, Manchester United finishing first. This is lower than Kelvin's three and Alex's six.

Lawrenson's total difference comes to 74, which is 8 higher than Alex's but 4 lower than Kelvin's.

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The Wayne Rooney Problem

Wayne Rooney has recently placed a second transfer request at Manchester United. He has also, reportedly anyway, said that he is prepared to perform a U-turn on this decision and stay at Manchester United. Regardless of how Moyes decides to react to this it is evident that Rooney is a volatile character who requires specific man management.

Rooney's second transfer request was placed after he fell out Ferguson's favour. Rooney has been playing second fiddle to Robin Van Persie, exactly the type of player Rooney believed Manchester United were not willing to sign when placing his first transfer request. Subsequently Rooney has found himself playing further back, sometimes as a centre forward and other times as far back as central/holding midfielder. Rooney has a game suited to these roles, partially down to Rooney's physical attributes. That will, however, be discussed later. It took an excellently executed press conference by the outgoing Sir Alex Ferguson to convince Rooney to stay at Manchester United in the wake of the first transfer request, is Moyes capable of talking Rooney into changing his mind a second time?

Moyes, as everyone knows, managed Wayne Rooney as a youngster at Everton. Their relationship was far from the best, with Moyes suing Rooney for libel in 2008, following accusations in the players autobiography that David Moyes leaked details of a private conversation to the Liverpool Echo. Moyes won between £50,000 and £150,000 and a "sincere apology" from Wayne Rooney. Since the legal agreement was reached the pair are said to be on amicable terms, however this may be put under significant stress as they enter into a working relationship. Although that is dependent on Moyes wanting to keep Rooney. Ferguson famously let a player go if he considered himself larger than the club, with Moyes chosen due to similar values as Ferguson then there is more than a chance that Moyes will also sell players he believes have such an attitude. There are certainly clubs willing to buy Rooney too, with PSG, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Monaco all rumoured suitors. The final factor likely to force Rooney out of the door is the fans. Rooney was booed by fans during the open bus parade celebration, and the talk of Falcao, Lewandowski or Fabregas as a replacement may cause excitement amongst the fans.

If the supposed U-turn is true and Rooney decides to stay with the newly crowned champions then he may have to cope with playing deeper. Many claim that Rooney is coming to the end of one of his worst seasons playing for Manchester United. He has, however, registered ten league assists, the joint fourth most in the league (and only just overtaken by Cazorla's four assists against now relegated Wigan) and only two fewer than PFA player of the year nominated and the league's top creator, Juan Mata. Rooney has also scored twelve goals, whilst only placing with joint 14th on the scoring table it does put his combined goals and assists in the top eight across the whole league. His slump may not be reflected in the numbers as strongly as some may suggest. Rooney also showed a capability of playing elsewhere on the pitch, a convincing performance against Stoke in mid April suggesting he could partner Carrick in midfield. This potential positional shift could add both playing time to Rooney's future seasons and add to Rooney's worth to Manchester United.

Whether Rooney stays at Manchester United or not depends very much on what happens behind closed doors between Rooney and Moyes. If Rooney commits his future 100% to Manchester United and is willing to succumb completely to Moyes' future plans. The statistics show that Rooney is of use to the team. However if Rooney is not able the commit wholeheartedly to playing a large part of Moyes' first few years as Manchester United manager then he should be sold to the highest bidder outside of England.

By Alex Pointon

Sources:

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-moyes-once-sued-wayne-rooney-2013-5

http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/399473/Rooney-in-peace-talks-as-David-Moyes-wants-Wayne-to-stay-at-Manchester-United

whoscored.com

Life After Ferguson: the Moyes Appointment

 It has now sunk in, Sir Alex Ferguson is to end his time as Manchester United manager. In his 26 and a half years at Manchester United much has changed, for one I have been born and grown into a young adult. It is his longevity, ridiculous trophy haul, constant reinvention and never ending passion for the game that make him a one off. Sir Alex once said "there are too many examples of people who retire and are in their box soon after. You're taking away the very thing that makes you alive, that keeps you alive." It very much seemed that way with Sir Alex Ferguson, that football, that being the Manchester United manager, was what kept him alive. Waking up early and dealing with mounds of paper work before training seemed to pleasure him. To turn Ferguson's own phrase onto him, he is a "unique freak". However this piece is not an ode to Ferguson, it is about his successor. David Moyes is the man set to come in and replace the irreplaceable.

Many have said that Moyes is not the right appointment, that he lacks European experience or that his record against the traditional big four is poor. Despite Moyes' only real European experience being guiding Everton to the UEFA cup round of 16 in 2008 and the 3rd qualifying round of the Champions League in 2005 the obvious question is, how do you gain the experience if you aren't qualified to compete in the competition? As for a poor record against the big four, that is neither here nor there. Never before has Moyes had a squad of Manchester United's quality at his disposal. Realistically it was not the points picked up against the very biggest teams that defined Eveton's seasons, it was consistently picking points up against those teams around and below them. That is not the case at Manchester United, the games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and even Liverpool and Tottenham can be the difference between a historic season and a forgettable one. It will be in his first year or two as Manchester United manager that he can define his ability to outwit the top managers in the country.

There are other positives too, Moyes is 50 years old. Neither old nor young for a Premier League manager. He has had time to gain the necessary experience and now is at a good age to settle down. Prior to Ferguson stepping down Moyes was the third longest reigning manager in the Football League. In his eleven year tenure at the helm of Everton he has had to build teams, a much praised characteristic of Ferguson. This will stand him in good stead as Manchester United manager as he will, presumably, stay long enough to have to build upon and develop the league winning team Ferguson has left him. Jose Mourinho's longest spell managing one club is 3 years, meaning he has never had to have a truly long term vision in regards to squad building. Another advantage of bringing in Moyes (that may well apply to bringing in any manager) is that because the team is not "his" it is easier to identify weaknesses and ruthlessly act upon them. It is a wide held view that a central midfielder is required at Manchester United with Fletcher, Scholes and Anderson all going (or deserving to go, Ando), however Ferguson hasn't bought a defensive minded central midfielder. Carrick enjoyed his best season in a Manchester United shirt and this may have slightly masked the problem, none the less a new manager will be able to objectively assess the strengths and weaknesses of the squad.

Recently Everton have been playing better football than many give them credit for. Regardless of their reliance on physical strikers (Anichebe, Jelavic, Fellaini. Historically, Yakubu, Cahill) he often employs a system with focus on wide areas. Pienaar and Baines have developed one of the most effective and consistent midfielder - full back partnerships in the league. Proof of this is that 43% of Everton's play is in the left third of the pitch. 31% of Everton's play is on the right, leaving 26% through the middle third. In comparison to Manchester United, a team who historically attack in wide areas, Everton actually play more down the wings. Manchester United play 32% down the left side, 40% down the right side and therefore 28% through the middle. This indicates that Moyes is unlikely to change the style of play associated with Manchester United. Another point worth noting is Moyes' effective use of a clever playmaker, Leon Osman. Shinji Kagawa has been used poorly for his first season in English football and it is possible that Moyes will be able to utilise him more efficiently than Ferguson has, especially with rumours suggesting that Wayne Rooney has handed in a second transfer request at Manchester United.

Moyes is also accomplished in the transfer market. Rarely does he make a big signing that doesn't work well, and even so, with the budget constraints at Everton a big signing for them may not be considered so at United. For example Kevin Mirallas for £6.7m has been one of Everton's top performing players this season, for comparison purposes that is roughly £1m less than Bebe cost Manchester United in 2010. Another shining example is Marouane Fellaini, the powerful midfielder cost Everton £19.1m in 2008 and has gone on to prove his worth and his sought after by many of the top clubs in Europe. With Ferguson staying at Manchester United in a directorial capacity Moyes will always be able to ask for advice or guidance. This bodes for success in the transfer market.

All things considered Moyes is a smart choice as Sir Alex Ferguson's successor. Whilst Mourinho may have provided the club with a sense of glamour, it is stability that is most desired. Sir Alex Ferguson has delivered success almost every year for his entire stay at Manchester United, undoubtedly a tough act to follow. Mourinho may have offered an attractive quick fling, however Moyes offers the dependability of a life partner. Which is what is required at Manchester United in the wake of Ferguson's retirement.

By Alex Pointon

Statistics from

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

www.whoscored.com