UCL Final 2013 Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich

On Saturday, London will finally be invaded by the Germans.

Borussia Dortmund take on Bayern Munich at Wembley. Both teams have been thoroughly impressive in the Champions League this season and are worthy finalists.

You would have to say that Bayern are favourites for Saturday. They absolutely steamrollered the Bundesliga this season, finishing an incredible 25 points ahead of Saturday’s opponents. This feat is even more impressive considering that only 34 matches are played in a Bundesliga season, compared to 38 games in the Premier League and La Liga. They also managed to score 98 goals, while only conceding 18, giving them a gigantic goal difference of +80.

Astonishing stuff. And with Pep Guardiola and Mario Götze joining the club in the summer, FC Hollywood have a real chance of repeating the glory achieved by the Beckenbauer inspired team that lifted the European Cup in 1974, 1975 and 1976.

But with football, you can never tell what will happen. I falsely predicted that Bayern would comfortably beat Chelsea in last season’s final. Bayern also have a tendency to lose European Cup/Champions League finals; they lost in 1982, 1987, 1999 and 2010. If this list was to grow on Saturday, and with last season’s defeat still fresh in the memory, it would have massive psychological implications. There is a strong possibility of this happening, as Dortmund are an excellent side.

But Mario Götze has a hamstring injury and is ruled out of the final. But I believe that even a fully fit Götze shouldn’t play. In a Champions League final, you need eleven players that are 100% committed. This simply cannot be ensured if Götze plays. He obviously wouldn’t play badly deliberately, but by agreeing to join Bayern, he has made it abundantly clear that he does not want to play for Dortmund. Imagine what would happen if he had to take a penalty in a shootout?

I believe Bayern will win on Saturday. They have a good record over Dortmund this season with two wins and two draws. However, I would like Dortmund to win. The humorous Jürgen Klopp has assembled a young but outstanding team on a small budget and the club, from a neutral point of view at least, seem to be more likeable than their Bavarian rivals. Despite this, I can still see Bayern winning, albeit by a single goal.

By Kelvin Jones

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Shinji Kagawa, still time to prove himself

In June 2012 it was agreed that established Japanese star Shinji Kagawa would join Manchester United for £12 million, potentially rising to £17 million (that's equivalent to 3 Andre Santos') and I, along with many other Manchester United fans, got very excited indeed. An energetic and technically gifted playmaker seemed a good fit to the fast paced United ethos. Now we find ourselves in February and he is yet to hit the heights that he seemed destined to. Why?

It could simply be put down to a settling in period. Having moved to a new country it is understandable that whilst he gets used to the culture, weather and language it may not be possible to perform to his absolute best every single week. It could also be credited to the fact that he is playing in a new league, the Premier League is widely regarded as the fastest and most physical elite leagues in the world, many very gifted footballers have failed to produce at all in the English game. There are, however, some other potential reasons for Kagawa not reaching the form he did at Borussia Dortmund.

Firstly, Kagawa hasn't been played in as many games as he may have liked. In fact he has only started 10 of the 25 Premier League fixtures to date. In these 10 starts as well as 1 substitute appearance Kagawa has provided 2 goals and a further 2 assists, not the sort of form that could lead to him being labelled as a flop (he has registered a pass accuracy of 90.5% after all), but it still leaves him languishing behind the likes of Mata (10 goals, 9 assists, 23 appearances), Cazorla (8 goals, 6 assists, 25 appearances) and even Damien Duff (3 goals, 7 assists, 20 appearances). Kagawa himself has made it clear that he feels hestill has an extra level to find.

Competition for places may be a barrier in allowing the number 26 to play his best football. Kagawa is not naturally suited to playing a traditional central midfield role and is much more at home further forward on the pitch, in a central attacking midfield role or even a second striker style role. This puts him in competition with the likes of Rooney, Welbeck, Cleverley, Young and arguably Van Persie, Nani and Valencia. With Ferguson seemingly favouring Van Persie in an advanced role and Rooney just off of him (which can't really be questioned given how it has worked out this season) Kagawa has had to play second fiddle to Rooney when looking to play his best position, or be forced to play slightly out of position in a role either out wide or further back on the field. As a result of this it may take a drop in form or even an injury to Rooney for Kagawa to really get a chance to shine.

Consequently of not receiving a great deal of game time and occasionally being played away from his favourite position Kagawa hasn't been able to develop an on field relationship with the very much on form Van Persie quite like the one he had with Lewandowski. In Germany Kagawa and Lewandowski performed very well together, often exchanging neat 1-2s in tight regions at the edge of the area in accompaniment to accurate long passing by Kagawa to find Lewandowski. It seems only reasonable that a relationship similar to one formed with the Polish Lewandowski could also form between Van Persie and Kagawa. Time will tell.

Kagawa is inarguably a talented footballer, his marvellous assist in a recent Japan international match shows that he is still sharp and I see it as only a matter of time before he starts producing glittering performances for United.

Kagawa assist for Japan

Kagawa and Lewandowski (forgive the editing, it's all I could find)

May be of some interest if you have 15 minutes to waste

  

You may also be interested in reading;

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1499231-why-shinji-kagawa-could-still-be-manchester-uniteds-x-factor

 http://www.redcafe.net/f6/shinji-kagawa-354792/index110.html

All statistics taken from the wonderful whoscored.com

UEFA Champions League Final: Bayern Munich vs Chelsea

According to the Euro Club Index, only one place separates Bayern Munich and Chelsea; they are placed fifth and sixth respectively. However, after their battle on the Allianz Arena turf tomorrow, I can only see Bayern Munich extending this lead.

Firstly, Bayern Munich have won all seven of their UEFA Champions League games at the Allianz Arena this season. They recorded impressive victories against Manchester City and Real Madrid, and they also destroyed FC Basel 7-0.

But, home advantage may be less effective than predicted. UEFA Champions League finals, in recent years at least, have had an atmosphere dominated by corporatism. Bayern fans will take up 17,500 seats on Saturday evening. On a normal match-day, over 60,000 Bayern fans are present. This may have a psychological effect on the players, as they are not used to this. Psychological factors play a huge part in football, and their effects are often overlooked. Chelsea may be able to exploit this.

Chelsea also have many key personnel ineligible; John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Raul Meireles and Ramires are all suspended. All four players scored en route to the final, and they will be significantly weakened by this. Chelsea will especially miss the leadership qualities of their controversial captain.

With Chelsea’s weakened back line, and Bayern’s formidable strike force of Mario Gomez, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribéry, the Germans are likely to claim their fifth UEFA Champions League title. Although Chelsea memorably defeated FC Barcelona in their semi-final clash, I do not believe that Chelsea can repeat a performance of this magnitude.

By Kelvin Jones

@Kelvin_Jones

Statistics courtesy of euroclubindex.com and whoscored.com