UCL Final 2013 Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich

On Saturday, London will finally be invaded by the Germans.

Borussia Dortmund take on Bayern Munich at Wembley. Both teams have been thoroughly impressive in the Champions League this season and are worthy finalists.

You would have to say that Bayern are favourites for Saturday. They absolutely steamrollered the Bundesliga this season, finishing an incredible 25 points ahead of Saturday’s opponents. This feat is even more impressive considering that only 34 matches are played in a Bundesliga season, compared to 38 games in the Premier League and La Liga. They also managed to score 98 goals, while only conceding 18, giving them a gigantic goal difference of +80.

Astonishing stuff. And with Pep Guardiola and Mario Götze joining the club in the summer, FC Hollywood have a real chance of repeating the glory achieved by the Beckenbauer inspired team that lifted the European Cup in 1974, 1975 and 1976.

But with football, you can never tell what will happen. I falsely predicted that Bayern would comfortably beat Chelsea in last season’s final. Bayern also have a tendency to lose European Cup/Champions League finals; they lost in 1982, 1987, 1999 and 2010. If this list was to grow on Saturday, and with last season’s defeat still fresh in the memory, it would have massive psychological implications. There is a strong possibility of this happening, as Dortmund are an excellent side.

But Mario Götze has a hamstring injury and is ruled out of the final. But I believe that even a fully fit Götze shouldn’t play. In a Champions League final, you need eleven players that are 100% committed. This simply cannot be ensured if Götze plays. He obviously wouldn’t play badly deliberately, but by agreeing to join Bayern, he has made it abundantly clear that he does not want to play for Dortmund. Imagine what would happen if he had to take a penalty in a shootout?

I believe Bayern will win on Saturday. They have a good record over Dortmund this season with two wins and two draws. However, I would like Dortmund to win. The humorous Jürgen Klopp has assembled a young but outstanding team on a small budget and the club, from a neutral point of view at least, seem to be more likeable than their Bavarian rivals. Despite this, I can still see Bayern winning, albeit by a single goal.

By Kelvin Jones

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Who is going to win the Champions League?

So today, the draw for the UEFA Champions League Semi-Finals were made. The games to be played are Barcelona vs Bayern Munich and Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund. With only these 4 teams, two from Spain and two from Germany, remaining, now would seem the ideal time to make an educated decision on who is actually going to win the tournament. To do this, I have compiled a table to compare the teams’ performances and squads.

	Borussia Dortmund	Bayern Munich	Real Madrid	Barcelona
League Position	2nd with 55 points	1st with 75 points	2nd with 65 points	1st with 78 points
Total Market Value	£225 million	£380 million	£525 million	£530 million
Most Valuable Player	Mario Gotze £37 million	Franck Ribery £37 million	Cristiano Ronaldo £88 million	Lionel Messi £105 million
Form in last 10 games (all competitions)	DLWWLWWDWW	WWWWLWWWWW	WWWWWWDWWL	WLLWWWDDWD
Goals Scored in UCL this season	19	22	23	18
WDL record in UCL this season	6-4-0	7-1-2	5-3-2	5-3-2
Discipline in UCL this season (Y/R)	9/0	24/1	18/2	19/1
European Pedigree (Includes European Cup Wins as UCL)	UCL Winners: 1997 UEFA Cup Runners Up: 1993, 2001	UCL Winners: 1974, 1975, 1976, 2001 UEFA Cup Winners: 1996	UCL Winners: 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1966, 1998, 2000, 2002 UCL Runners Up: 1962, 1964, 1981 UEFA Cup Winners: 1985, 1986	UCL Winners: 1992, 2006, 2009, 2011 UCL Runners Up: 1961, 1986, 1994

Clearly, the remaining four teams are fairly evenly matched, with each team having its own strong point. Munich are in the best run of form, having lost only once in their last ten games, the defeat coming against Arsenal in the Champion’s League last 16. Dortmund, however, have the best record in this year’s competition, being the only team in the last four yet to have lost a game. Real Madrid obviously have the European pedigree, having won the tournament more times than any other team. Barcelona’s advantage, for me, lies with Messi. He is capable of winning the tournament single-handedly, as demonstrated by his game changing substitute appearance against PSG in the quarter-finals.

However, to consider who is best placed to win the competition, we must also examine who is playing who. Barcelona vs Bayern Munich would seem to be the tougher of the two games, with these being many people’s pre-tournament favourites. I’m sure it will be a tense game over the two legs, but I personally feel that Barcelona will be able to edge out Munich in their home tie at the Camp Nou. Having seen Barcelona wipe AC Milan out 4-0 at home, I see no reason why a similarly impressive Barcelona display could not happen against Munich. However, I would imagine Munich would win their home tie, but I still see Barcelona winning out over both legs.

The second semi-final would seem far more easily settled. Madrid are the clear favourites to win over both legs, with Dortmund having been considered as outsiders to get this far in the tournament, at the cost of sides with perhaps greater pedigree such as many of the English or Italian sides. That said, Dortmund have shown great resilience so far in the competition, they came from behind against Malaga in the quarter-finals to win in injury time, and it is no mean feat to play 10 UCL games and not lose a single match. Madrid, do overall have a deeper squad, with a larger range of talent and Ronaldo. He is not a player to be ignored, and like Messi, can single-handedly win games.

This brings us to a final that I predict will be Barcelona vs Real Madrid, to be hosted at Wembley. I think that this final encounter will be won by Madrid. In the last 10 iterations of El Clasico, Real Madrid have won 4, Barcelona have won 3 and 3 have ended in stalemate. However, of the last 5, 3 have been Madrid wins, and the other two were drawn. This shows that Madrid may have the edge in what is perhaps one of the most hotly contested rivalries in European Football, and this is the reason why Real Madrid are going to win the 2013 UEFA Champions League (in my opinion, I can’t say what the other chaps think).

By Paddy Milnes

Follows us on Twitter: @chapstalkfootball @thepaddy

Statistics from:

Transfermarkt.com

Uefa.com

Bvb.de

Fcbayern.telekom.de

Realmadrid.com

Fcbarcelona.com