Kelvin’s Premier League Predictions

It’s that time of the year again! This is how the Premier League table will look at the end of the 2013/2014 season.

1	Manchester City
2	Chelsea
3	Manchester United
4	Arsenal
5	Tottenham Hotspur
6	Liverpool
7	Swansea City
8	Everton
9	Fulham
10	West Ham United
11	West Bromwich Albion
12	Newcastle United
13	Southampton
14	Sunderland
15	Aston Villa
16	Cardiff City
17	Norwich City
18	Stoke City
19	Hull City
20	Crystal Palace

Disagree? Tweet us!

@ChapsTalkFootball

@KelvinJonesCBE

Can Arsenal win the Premier League next season?

Bacary Sagna believes that Arsenal can win the Premier League next season. Does he have a point?

There is no denying that Arsenal were schizophrenic last season. Cup defeats to Bradford and Blackburn were inexcusable, but Wenger’s team finished the season excellently, taking 26 out of a possible 30 points to secure 4^th position.

In the end, Arsenal finished with the second best Premier League defensive record, conceding 37 goals. Comparing this with the 49 goals conceded in the 2011/2012 season, a significant improvement has been made. The central-defensive partnership of Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker has flourished and the old cliché of Arsenal not being able to defend is surely out of date now.

In order to mount a title-challenge, it is vital to make a good start. But over the last couple of seasons, Arsenal have made poor starts. This can be attributed to the departures of key-players. For example, after losing Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri in 2011, Arsenal failed to gain domestic form until October. They also stuttered in 2012 after losing Robin van Persie and Alex Song, as it disrupted a major part of the team’s spine.

Arsenal are unlikely to lose a first-team player this summer. It could be argued that this is because Arsenal no longer have any world-class players, meaning that clubs such as Barcelona have no need to swoop. By keeping the nucleus of the team intact, there is no reason why they cannot build on the form that was captured at the end of last season.

However, if Arsenal are to mount a serious title bid, they must buy a world class striker. Although I think Olivier Giroud has been a good signing, he admittedly struggles against the best Premier League teams, and because of this, he should be second-choice up front.

As for a first-choice striker, Wenger will never purchase someone like Edinson Cavani at their current market value, and rightly so in my opinion. Kaká and Fernando Torres were bought at £56 million and £50 million respectively; they both failed to live up to massive expectations.

Gonzalo Higuain has been heavily linked with Arsenal and he would be a superb signing. He should be available at around £22.5 million, which would break Arsenal’s transfer record, but I think he is good value for money. According to transfermarkt.co.uk, he had a market value of £33.5 million in 2011. While this could provide evidence of stagnation, at 25 years old, he would be worth the risk.

Arsenal should also be able to benefit from the managerial changes at the title-contending clubs. It will take a considerable period of time for David Moyes to feel comfortable at Man Utd, and with tough opening fixures, there is, for the first time in many seasons, just a hint of uncertainty at Old Trafford.

To conclude, I do think Arsenal can at least challenge for the Premier League this season. Their defensive frailties appear to be ironed out and with some intelligent signings, such as Higuain, they’ll have a competitive team. While actually winning the Premier League may be a little too optimistic, a second place finish would provide a solid base to build upon for the 2014/2015 season.

By Kelvin Jones

Follow us on Twitter! @ChapsTalkFBall

Released XI

Last week Premier League clubs revealed the players who they would be releasing, this prompted @False_Number9 to create a Released XI, here is my team to face his. I have not used any of the same players, not even from the bench, and therefore this presented something of a challenge. None the less a team has been put together.

Mucha (Everton) - Whilst Mucha only played 2 games in the season gone, one of them was a sensational clean sheet and man of the match performance against Manchester City which allowed Everton to win the game 2-1. His second performance being a good game in Everton's 3-1 defeat of Reading. At 30 years old Mucha still has plenty of years ahead of him and a steady run in a team could allow him to shine.

Stam (Wigan) - Despite being a casualty in Wigan's disappointing season Stam offers solid defensive contribution and reliable tackling. His greatest quality, however, is his ability going forward from right back. Stam is an ablle dribbler and adept at crossing. At 28 years old Stam could provide a newly promoted team with cover or fit in well in the Championship.

Ben Haim (QPR) - At 31 his best years are no doubt behind him, but Ben Haim has 72 caps for Israel and has played for clubs such as Chelsea and Manchester City. As a player with a wealth of experience and the ability to play anywhere across the line, a gamble on Ben Haim seems worthwhile, as if he were able to recapture his form for Bolton (04-07) he would certainly be an asset to any team.

Pearce (Reading) - Only 24 and already a full Republic of Ireland international it is surprising that Reading has let Pearce go. Said to possess "a superb work ethic and mentality" the centre back, who played 19 times in the 12/13 Premier League, offers terrific value for any team looking for an old fashioned centre back.

Tierney (Norwich) - Tierney was only able to play once last season, but as a 27 year old Tierney still has years in him. He is a player not dissimilar to Pearce in his willingness to put his body on the line for the good of the team. He is also a strong crosser of the ball.

Whitehead (Stoke) - Versatile, experienced and strong Whitehead is more of a destroyer than a creator. 26 Stoke appearances suggest he is still up to pace with the Premier League, and a pass success rate of 83.8% suggests he isn't completely bereft of qualities with the ball. At 31 Whitehead could steady an inexperienced midfield or offer cover to a higher calibre of player.

O'Neil (West Ham) - A different sort of player to Whitehead, ex-England U21 player O'Neil has good technique and this is reflected in his set piece taking ability, key pass rate and long shot accuracy. In this hypothetical team O'Neil and Whitehead would act in a similar way to Alonso and Khedira do for Real Madrid. O'Neil has never relied heavily on pace, and therefore it seems likely that, at 30, he has 4-5 years left playing at a high level.

Bentley (Tottenham) - One of the stars of this team. Bentley has amassed 7 full England caps and has played for Arsenal, Blackburn during their reliable 06-08 years and Tottenham. Bentley has exemplary technique and scored one of the best goals in North London derby history for Tottenham. Bentley is 28 years old and has the ability to play comfortably in the English Premier League.

Gera (West Brom) - 34 years old and subsequently lacking in pace, regardless Gera is a highly creative and intelligent player who is able to play in almost any attacking position. Gera scored 4 goals in 16 West Brom appearances last season and no doubt has another season or two in him.

Thomas (West Brom) - Whilst 30 years old Jerome Thomas is still a left winger with pace capable of causing defenders problems. Thomas, a junior England international, may well be a class below Malouda but offers a superior attitude to the Frenchman's and would be an asset to most Premier League squads.

Campbell (QPR) - 31 years old and injury prone, DJ Campbell seems like an odd choice. Despite this in the 10/11 season Campbell showed finishing prowess and scored 13 goals for Blackpool, with three players behind him who will create chances DJ Campbell, when fit, could relive his season at Blackpool and score amply.

By Alex Pointon

Follow us on twitter - @ChapsTalkFBall

Sources:

Whoscored.com

Wikipedia

http://outsideoftheboot.com/tactics-creator/

Kelvin and Alex's Predictions

Last August Kelvin and Alex predicted how the table would look come the end of the season. Now that the last Premier League fixtures have been played for the best part of 90 days we are capable of assessing who was most accurate. You can find Kelvin's predicted table here and Alex's here, also of use may be the final Premier League table, which you can view in full here.

There are, as far as I see it, three ways in which to assess the accuracy of our tables;
1.) How close to correct we were in predicting the Champions League places and relegation spots
2.) How many team's final positions we guessed correctly
3.) The cumulative difference between predicted positions and final positions for each team

1.) On the left is Kelvins predicted top four and bottom three, on the right is Alex's.

1st - Manchester City (2nd)                          1st - Manchester United (1st)

2nd - Manchester United (1st)                      2nd - Manchester City (2nd)

3rd - Arsenal (4th)                                       3rd - Chelsea (3rd)

4th - Chelsea (3rd)                                       4th - Arsenal (4th)

-                                                                  -

-                                                                  -

18th - Wigan (18th)                                      18th - Wigan (18th)

19th - Swansea (9th)                                    19th - Southampton (14th)

20th - Southampton (14th)                            20th - West Ham (10th)

Both predicted the top four teams correctly, however Alex predicted the precise order, Kelvin didn't get one in the correct position. Both predicted that Wigan would finish 18th, both incorrectly predicted the other two relegated teams. 

Due to the more accurate top four Alex wins this round.

2.) Kelvin correctly predicted that Liverpool would finish 7th, that Fulham would finish 12th and that Wigan would finish 18th. This gives him three exact predictions.

Alex Predicted the top four exactly, Everton's 6th place finish and Wigan's 18th place finish. This makes six exact predictions.

Alex Wins this round.

3.) Kelvin's cumulative difference totals 78, with his farthest from the truth guess being Newcastle finishing 5th, which is 11 positions too high.

Alex's cumulative difference comes to 66, with two predictions 11 places incorrect (Newcastle and QPR).

As his total is 12 lower than Kelvin's Alex wins this round.

A clean sweep for Alex, for next years predictions all four CTF writers will contribute and see if Alex can retain his crown.

EDIT

Mark Lawrenson of the BBC also made a predicted table before the season began, that can be found here.

His top four contains all of the correct teams, however three of them are in the wrong position, making his top four prediction better than Kelvin's but worse than Alex's. Lawrenson, just like Alex and Kelvin predicted only one relegated team correctly, but his prediction for Reading to finish 20th was not exaxtly right, unlike both Kelvin and Alex's prediction of an 18th place Wigan finish.

Lawrenson only got one exact position correct, Manchester United finishing first. This is lower than Kelvin's three and Alex's six.

Lawrenson's total difference comes to 74, which is 8 higher than Alex's but 4 lower than Kelvin's.

Follow us on twitter - @ChapsTalkFBall

Strength in depth

I have looked at the last three Premier League winning squads (assuming nothing catastrophic occurs in the remainder of this season at United) and then looked at their "second eleven", that is what I deem the best eleven should they be without every single player they would start with.

 I believe the Chelsea second eleven of 09/10 to be the weakest of the three looked at. Hilario is of questionable quality, and made only 2 Premier League starts in the title winning season.Whilst Alex (shown on the image as Costa) is a quality centre back and Bosingwa and Ferreira are solid full backs, Bruma is a weak link and only included due to lack of other options. It is also worth noting that Ferreira is out of position, favouring a role at right back. Mikel is an able enough understudy to Essien, Belletti is played out of position (once again due to lack of other serious options) and Deco provided real quality, albeit on ageing legs. Joe Cole and Zhirkov are a definite class below Anelka and Malouda. Finally Kalou does little to inspire confidence should Drogba be missing a game, but beyond Anelka and Drogba Chelsea lacked any true strikers of real class.

 The Manchester City team contains undoubted quality speckled with players less gifted. Pantmillion still only stands out to me due to his lanky frame and Pokemon-esque name, he has yet to prove anything to me as a goalkeeper. Richards is a quality right back and Toure also a valuable centre back to have. Kolarov is as good a player as you can hope to have in the absence of a starting eleven player. De Jong is also a crucial player, definitely better than Javi Martinez, and only misses out on the starting eleven due to the quality of Yaya Toure and alienating loyalty to Barry. Pizarro was an odd player to bring in on loan and made just one Premier League start. Balotelli is, whilst controversial and prone to self destruction, also a highly talented footballer. Milner is a workmanlike player who is versatile and a valuable player due to this. Adam Johnson, limited to only ten starts, has since gone elsewhere to try and find first team football, indicative of his contribution at City. Dzeko is, in my opinion, a vastly underrated player. Scoring 14 goals in 16 starts and 15 sub appearances is good by anyone's standards.

The Manchester United team is one which possesses few stars, but also very few weak links. Lindegaard is probably the best of the three goal keepers. Jones as good at right back as anyone mentioned (especially when consistency is taken into account), Evans is hugely improved and has played exceptionally this season, Smalling also a player who is steadily proving himself to be a capable centre back, finally Buttner is unlikely to add vastly to his current 2 Premier League starts but has shown himself to be exciting going forward. Anderson, whilst sketchy of late, is without doubt a better centre midfield option than Belletti or Pizarro and Scholes is a player capable of controlling and changing big games. The 3 playing behind Hernandez could give most defences a run for their money, once again without a blatant weak link. Kagawa has had a bright first season, Welbeck proven himself to be exciting and hardworking, whilst Nani has a few seasons of good Premier League form to back him up. Hernandez, similarly to Dzeko, scores goals. With 8 goals from 6 starts and 15 substitute appearances, he can be expected to reach double figures comfortably by the end of the season.

If I had to make an XI from all 3 teams?
Lindegaard. Jones, Alex, Evans, Kolarov. Scholes, De Jong. Welbeck, Balotelli, Nani. Dzeko.

That makes 6 Manchester United players, 4 Manchester City and just the 1 Chelsea player. Does this show that depth is becoming a greater factor in winning the title?

Follow us on twitter - @ChapsTalkFBall


The squads were chosen and displayed on the new and fantastic @EPLindex tactics app
Appearances and goals scored found on the ever reliable Wikipedia

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal: Preview

The North London derby is always a must watch game. Tomorrow’s game is no exception, as the race for the Champions League places is tight.

Pos	Team	Played	Wins	Draws	Losses	GD	Points
3rd	Chelsea	28	15	7	6	+26	52
4th	Tottenham	27	15	6	6	+15	51
5th	Arsenal	27	13	8	6	+22	47
6th	Everton	28	11	12	5	+9	45

Arsenal cannot afford to lose tomorrow. A defeat will leave them seven points behind Tottenham and five points behind Chelsea. With ten games remaining, it would be a considerable lead.

The North London derby is the highest scoring fixture in Premier League history; 121 goals have been scored. The table below shows the results since 2008.

North London derbies since 2008

2012/2013	Arsenal	5	2	Tottenham
2011/2012	Arsenal	5	2	Tottenham
2011/2012	Tottenham	2	1	Arsenal
2010/2011	Tottenham	3	3	Arsenal
2010/2011	Arsenal	2	3	Tottenham
2009/2010	Tottenham	2	1	Arsenal
2009/2010	Arsenal	3	0	Tottenham
2008/2009	Tottenham	0	0	Arsenal
2008/2009	Arsenal	4	4	Tottenham

Goals per game since 2008	4.67
Arsenal goals per game since 2008	2.67
Tottenham goals per game since 2008	2.00

Gareth Bale has recently been compared to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo in the media, but I believe that to be a massive exaggeration. While nine goals in seven games is impressive, Messi and Ronaldo are able to reproduce this form consistently. Arsene Wenger believes that Bale would find it “very, very difficult” to continue the form he is currently in.

Having said that, if the in-form Bale turns up tomorrow, Arsenal will be in for a tough afternoon. Bacary Sagna has been ruled out with a knee injury, leaving Carl Jenkinson to deputise. Despite being much less experienced than the Frenchman, Jenkinson is a good player and he is capable of nullifying the threat posed by Bale.

Personally, I think the game will end up as a 2-2 draw. Both teams are very evenly matched. The form table can barely separate them, with Arsenal ranked second and Tottenham ranked third.

By Kelvin Jones

Follow us on Twitter! @ChapsTalkFBall

Sources:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20278355

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/form-guide.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/9903706/Tottenham-v-Arsenal-Gareth-Bale-will-inevitably-suffer-dip-in-form-warns-Arsene-Wenger-ahead-of-derby.html

Pound for pound Premier League

Last night on twitter FourFourTom presented his followers with questions about who had been the best and worst "pound for pound" English teams this season. The two teams who were mentioned more often than not for the worst pound for pound were Chelsea and QPR. These are both understandable and justifiable.

Chelsea often field a front four that was put together for around £125 million (Torres, Mata, Oscar and Hazard) and to be sitting in third a whole seven points from second and an astounding nineteen points off of the leaders Manchester United is simply unacceptable with this fire power available to them.

QPR are also obvious candidates for worst performing team, not only are they six points off of nineteenth position they are also the lowest scorers in the league (19 goals in 27 games, next lowest - Villa/Stoke 26 goals in 27 games). QPR are on the longest run without a win in the league too, having picked up a point or less in each of their last six fixtures.

However I would like to nominate Manchester City for worst team as well (I assure you that this isn't just my red tinted glasses). They may have only lost three league games all season but two of the teams they lost to were Sunderland and Southampton, games that defending champions should be able to come out of with points. They also have dropped points against QPR, West Ham and Stoke. If you look at goals for and against then it isn't apparent that City are having a bad season, they boast the meanest defence in the league (conceding 24 goals in 27 games, next lowest - Arsenal/Spurs/Chelsea 30 goals in 27* games) and are the leagues fourth top scorers. A quick glance at how they did in the cups shows League Cup defeat at the hands of Aston Villa and only accumulating three points across their six Champions League group stage matches. With all of this in mind I feel the largest reason I suggest City is their inability to keep pace with Manchester United, Mancini has been unable to motivate his team to chase down the leaders. If, come the end of the season, City are still twelve points (or possibly even more) off of United then the 2012/13 campaign will be regarded as both a failure and possibly even an embarrassment.

All stats take from whoscored.com and were correct at the time of publishing

*Spurs have only played 26

QPR: good squad, little hope

Queens Park Rangers are currently bottom of the Premier League with 17 points from 26 games, 4 points from the nearest team (Wigan on 21 points) as well as being 7 points from Aston Villa in 17th. Despite the appointment of Harry Redknapp it would still require a gargantuan effort as well as a huge slice of luck for them to begin the 13/14 season as a top flight club. Where has it all gone wrong for them?

One thing it most certainly isn't is the quality of the squad. The Malaysian money provided be Tony Fernandes have allowed them to buy players with a surprising amount of experience, in fact I have prepared a table stating the number of Champions League, Europa League (or UEFA Cup) and International caps acquired by each player currently available to QPR, also in the right hand column I have added together CL, IC and EL multiplied by 0.66, as it is deemed a lesser competition I considered it unfair for it to carry the same weight.

	CL	EL	IC
Remy	18	7	17	37
Samba	0	15	26	36
Fabio	14	2	2	17
Cesar	52	0	65	117
Traore	2	2	4	7
Park	54	3	100	156
M'Bia	15	4	41	59
Taarabt	0	4	15	18
Granero	15	9	0	21
Jenas	14	38	21	60
Zamora	0	21	2	16
Onuoha	0	6	0	4
Bosingwa	63	4	24	90
Mackie	0	0	9	9
Hoilett	0	0	0	0
Diakite	0	0	8	8
Wright-Phillips	17	20	36	66
Johnson	0	15	8	18
Ben Haim	1	14	63	73
Young	0	8	7	12
Bothroyd	0	2	1	2
Green	0	0	12	12
DJ Campbell	0	0	0	0
Clint Hill	0	0	0	0
Yun Suk-Young	0	0	1	1
Cerny	0	23	3	18
Murphy	0	0	0	0
Derry	0	0	0	0
Ephraim	0	0	0	0
Townsend	0	9	0	6

A startling amount of experience is held just between Park, Cesar and Bosingwa, who all happen to have won the Champions League. There are, however, 2 worrying things about having so many big players within a team like QPR. Firstly, without looking it up I think it's safe to say that none of QPRs stars (bar the man mountain Christopher Samba) have been involved in a relegation battle before.  Secondly, should QPR get relegated there would have to be a mass exodus of players. A championship team would struggle to pay for the wages of that many big names, players like that understandably want to be playing top flight football and as none of the "big" players have been at QPR very long it seems unlikely that they would have developed the loyalty to take a pay cut and stay to help fight for promotion.

With all of this taken into account I think QPR would have to rely on a run of form based on being the better team in order to stay in the league (i.e. being the better team in all of the games they play as opposed to nicking wins despite being dominated). If we look at all of the Premier League fixtures they have reaming;

Opponent	Venue	Date
Manchester United	Home	23/02
Southampton	Away	02/03
Sunderland	Home	09/03
Aston Villa	Away	16/03
Fulham	Away	01/04
Wigan	Home	07/04
Everton	Away	13/04
Stoke	Home	20/04
Reading	Away	28/04
Arsenal	Home	04/05
Newcastle	Home	12/05
Liverpool	Away	19/05

How many of them are winnable? There are 5 games between Manchester United and Everton which present QPR with a brilliant opportunity to pick up points, followed by Stoke and Reading. So if QPR are to stay up, which doesn't look impossible, they can hardly afford to drop any points in these 7 fixtures and must aim to cause upsets in the other 5 games. Can I see them doing it? No. Expect to see the big names leaving Loftus road for cut prices in the summer.

By Alex

Follow US on twitter: @ChapsTalkFBall

All statistics and facts are from the marvellous sites transfermarkt.co.uk and whoscored.com