Saturday 9 February 2013

Can Arsenal still make the top four?


The next 13 Premier League games are massive for Arsenal Football Club. Despite finishing in the top four every season since 1997, they are currently four points adrift of Tottenham in fourth position. Arsenal would suffer consequences on and off the pitch should they fail to qualify for the Champions League.

The 2012/2013 season has been, so far, one of Arsenal’s worst seasons under the Wenger era, as the table below shows.

After 25 games:

Season
Wins
Draws
Losses
Points
Position
Final League Position
2012/2013
11
8
6
41
6th
?
2011/2012
13
4
8
43
4th
3rd
2010/2011
15
5
5
50
2nd
4th
2009/2010
15
4
6
49
3rd
3rd
2008/2009
12
8
5
44
5th
4th

Fourth position after 38 games:

Season
Team
Points
2011/2012
Tottenham
69
2010/2011
Arsenal
68
2009/2010
Tottenham
70
2008/2009
Arsenal
72

Looking at the table above, you could assume that at least 68 points are required for a 4th place Premier League finish. Therefore, Arsenal need to collect 27 points from an available 39. This would be difficult; Arsenal have already dropped 12 points in 2013. Comparatively, Manchester United have dropped 13 points during the whole season.

Arsenal would need a repeat, or even an improvement on their seven game winning streak recorded this time last season.

Remaining games:

Fixture
Date
Sunderland (A)
9th February
Aston Villa (H)
23rd February
Tottenham (A)
3rd March
Everton (H)
9th March
Swansea (A)
16th March
Reading (H)
30th March
West Brom (A)
6th April
Norwich (H)
13th April
Fulham (A)
20th April
Man Utd (H)
27th April
QPR (A)
4th May
Wigan (H)
12th May
Newcastle (A)
19th May

March could be the decisive month for Wenger’s team. With the four point gap, the game at White Hart Lane on March 3rd will have extra significance. Everton visit The Emirates on the 9th and a difficult away trip to Swansea follows on the 16th. These three games are easily losable; this would extinguish Arsenal’s top four hopes.

Although the slightly easier games of Reading, West Brom, Norwich and Fulham follow, the gap could be too large by then. But it is worth remembering that Tottenham threw away a ten point lead over Arsenal last season.

The verdict? If Arsenal drop six points or more during March, then it could be all over. They would then have to rely on winning the Champions League in May in order to qualify for the 2013/2014 tournament. Various large bookmakers have written Arsenal off as 40-1 outsiders.

By Kelvin Jones

Follow me on Twitter! @KelvinJonesss

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