Who is going to win the Champions League?

So today, the draw for the UEFA Champions League Semi-Finals were made. The games to be played are Barcelona vs Bayern Munich and Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund. With only these 4 teams, two from Spain and two from Germany, remaining, now would seem the ideal time to make an educated decision on who is actually going to win the tournament. To do this, I have compiled a table to compare the teams’ performances and squads.

	Borussia Dortmund	Bayern Munich	Real Madrid	Barcelona
League Position	2nd with 55 points	1st with 75 points	2nd with 65 points	1st with 78 points
Total Market Value	£225 million	£380 million	£525 million	£530 million
Most Valuable Player	Mario Gotze £37 million	Franck Ribery £37 million	Cristiano Ronaldo £88 million	Lionel Messi £105 million
Form in last 10 games (all competitions)	DLWWLWWDWW	WWWWLWWWWW	WWWWWWDWWL	WLLWWWDDWD
Goals Scored in UCL this season	19	22	23	18
WDL record in UCL this season	6-4-0	7-1-2	5-3-2	5-3-2
Discipline in UCL this season (Y/R)	9/0	24/1	18/2	19/1
European Pedigree (Includes European Cup Wins as UCL)	UCL Winners: 1997 UEFA Cup Runners Up: 1993, 2001	UCL Winners: 1974, 1975, 1976, 2001 UEFA Cup Winners: 1996	UCL Winners: 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1966, 1998, 2000, 2002 UCL Runners Up: 1962, 1964, 1981 UEFA Cup Winners: 1985, 1986	UCL Winners: 1992, 2006, 2009, 2011 UCL Runners Up: 1961, 1986, 1994

Clearly, the remaining four teams are fairly evenly matched, with each team having its own strong point. Munich are in the best run of form, having lost only once in their last ten games, the defeat coming against Arsenal in the Champion’s League last 16. Dortmund, however, have the best record in this year’s competition, being the only team in the last four yet to have lost a game. Real Madrid obviously have the European pedigree, having won the tournament more times than any other team. Barcelona’s advantage, for me, lies with Messi. He is capable of winning the tournament single-handedly, as demonstrated by his game changing substitute appearance against PSG in the quarter-finals.

However, to consider who is best placed to win the competition, we must also examine who is playing who. Barcelona vs Bayern Munich would seem to be the tougher of the two games, with these being many people’s pre-tournament favourites. I’m sure it will be a tense game over the two legs, but I personally feel that Barcelona will be able to edge out Munich in their home tie at the Camp Nou. Having seen Barcelona wipe AC Milan out 4-0 at home, I see no reason why a similarly impressive Barcelona display could not happen against Munich. However, I would imagine Munich would win their home tie, but I still see Barcelona winning out over both legs.

The second semi-final would seem far more easily settled. Madrid are the clear favourites to win over both legs, with Dortmund having been considered as outsiders to get this far in the tournament, at the cost of sides with perhaps greater pedigree such as many of the English or Italian sides. That said, Dortmund have shown great resilience so far in the competition, they came from behind against Malaga in the quarter-finals to win in injury time, and it is no mean feat to play 10 UCL games and not lose a single match. Madrid, do overall have a deeper squad, with a larger range of talent and Ronaldo. He is not a player to be ignored, and like Messi, can single-handedly win games.

This brings us to a final that I predict will be Barcelona vs Real Madrid, to be hosted at Wembley. I think that this final encounter will be won by Madrid. In the last 10 iterations of El Clasico, Real Madrid have won 4, Barcelona have won 3 and 3 have ended in stalemate. However, of the last 5, 3 have been Madrid wins, and the other two were drawn. This shows that Madrid may have the edge in what is perhaps one of the most hotly contested rivalries in European Football, and this is the reason why Real Madrid are going to win the 2013 UEFA Champions League (in my opinion, I can’t say what the other chaps think).

By Paddy Milnes

Follows us on Twitter: @chapstalkfootball @thepaddy

Statistics from:

Transfermarkt.com

Uefa.com

Bvb.de

Fcbayern.telekom.de

Realmadrid.com

Fcbarcelona.com

Burak Yilmaz: more goals than Messi

Burak Yilmaz is not a household name. At all. But in this season’s Champions League, the Turkish striker is on fire. He has more Champions League goals to his name than Lionel Messi (7) and the same amount as Cristiano Ronaldo (8). His goals are below:

Incredibly, Yilmaz joined Galatasaray in the summer for just over £4.25 million from Trabzonspor. According to transfermarkt.co.uk, Messi and Ronaldo have market values of £105 million and £88 million respectively. That makes Messi worth almost 25 times the value of Yilmaz.

With players such as Didier Drogba, Wesley Sneijder and Emmanuel Eboue, Yilmaz has been the unlikely stand-out performer for Galatasaray. He has 16 goals in 19 starts in the Turkish Super Lig this season and he also scored 33 goals in 34 games last year for Trabzonspor. Critics may argue that the Turkish Super Lig is a weak league; UEFA only consider it the 12^th best league in Europe.

But, if he keeps his very impressive scoring rate up, Galatasaray will find it tough to prise Europe’s elite away from their striker. Galatasaray face Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals in April, giving Yilmaz a perfect platform to increase his rapidly growing reputation.

By Kelvin Jones

Follow us on Twitter! @ChapsTalkFball

Sources:

whoscored.com

uefa.com

Real Madrid vs. Manchester United: Preview

A mouth-watering Champions League clash awaits on Wednesday as Manchester United face the formidable Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu stadium.

Both sides have had differing league campaigns. Manchester United are currently twelve points ahead of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League after their 2-0 win against Everton on Sunday.

Real Madrid’s defence of their La Liga title has not gone to plan however. They are currently in third place; sixteen points behind Barcelona and four points behind a Radamel Falcao inspired Atletico Madrid.

José Mourinho has come under heavy scrutiny for Real Madrid’s poor league campaign. Despite this, the Portuguese is still widely tipped to be Ferguson’s successor at Old Trafford. Their head to head record is below:

	Games	Percentage
Mourinho Wins	6	46.2%
Ferguson Wins	2	15.4%
Draws	5	38.4%
Total Games	13

Mourinho has a good record against Ferguson. He recorded wins with FC Porto and Chelsea between 2004 and 2007. Ferguson triumphed the last time the two managers faced each other in March 2009, with a 2-0 victory against Inter Milan at Old Trafford.

Mourinho’s team are favourites for Wednesday’s game. Personnel wise, I believe that both teams are evenly matched. However, Real Madrid are unbeaten at the Bernabéu this season, winning fifteen out of nineteen games in all competitions.

Manchester United have also never won at the Bernabéu; Arsenal and Liverpool in 2006 and 2009 remain the only English teams to have recorded away victories against Los Blancos.

The game has added significance as current Champions League top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo faces his former club for the first time. He recently stated that the happiest time of his career was spent at Manchester United. Ferguson is still a huge admirer of Ronaldo, but he has ruled a out a return for the twenty-eight year old; he is simply too expensive.

Manchester United have a slight advantage by playing away in the first leg. But, I believe that they need to score at least two away goals to have a serious chance of progressing in the return leg on March 3rd. With players such as Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie in the team, this is entirely achievable.

By Kelvin Jones

Follow me on Twitter! @KelvinJonesss

Sources:

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/team/fixtures/_/id/86/real-madrid?cc=5739

http://www.skysports.com/football/league/0,,11826,00.html

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/football/champions-league/top-goalscorers.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1040469-jose-mourinho-vs-sir-alex-ferguson-scoring-the-battle-so-far/page/7

Can Arsenal still make the top four?

The next 13 Premier League games are massive for Arsenal Football Club. Despite finishing in the top four every season since 1997, they are currently four points adrift of Tottenham in fourth position. Arsenal would suffer consequences on and off the pitch should they fail to qualify for the Champions League.

The 2012/2013 season has been, so far, one of Arsenal’s worst seasons under the Wenger era, as the table below shows.

After 25 games:

Season	Wins	Draws	Losses	Points	Position	Final League Position
2012/2013	11	8	6	41	6th	?
2011/2012	13	4	8	43	4th	3rd
2010/2011	15	5	5	50	2nd	4th
2009/2010	15	4	6	49	3rd	3rd
2008/2009	12	8	5	44	5th	4th

Fourth position after 38 games:

Season	Team	Points
2011/2012	Tottenham	69
2010/2011	Arsenal	68
2009/2010	Tottenham	70
2008/2009	Arsenal	72

Looking at the table above, you could assume that at least 68 points are required for a 4^th place Premier League finish. Therefore, Arsenal need to collect 27 points from an available 39. This would be difficult; Arsenal have already dropped 12 points in 2013. Comparatively, Manchester United have dropped 13 points during the whole season.

Arsenal would need a repeat, or even an improvement on their seven game winning streak recorded this time last season.

Remaining games:

Fixture	Date
Sunderland (A)	9th February
Aston Villa (H)	23rd February
Tottenham (A)	3rd March
Everton (H)	9th March
Swansea (A)	16th March
Reading (H)	30th March
West Brom (A)	6th April
Norwich (H)	13th April
Fulham (A)	20th April
Man Utd (H)	27th April
QPR (A)	4th May
Wigan (H)	12th May
Newcastle (A)	19th May

March could be the decisive month for Wenger’s team. With the four point gap, the game at White Hart Lane on March 3^rd will have extra significance. Everton visit The Emirates on the 9^th and a difficult away trip to Swansea follows on the 16^th. These three games are easily losable; this would extinguish Arsenal’s top four hopes.

Although the slightly easier games of Reading, West Brom, Norwich and Fulham follow, the gap could be too large by then. But it is worth remembering that Tottenham threw away a ten point lead over Arsenal last season.

The verdict? If Arsenal drop six points or more during March, then it could be all over. They would then have to rely on winning the Champions League in May in order to qualify for the 2013/2014 tournament. Various large bookmakers have written Arsenal off as 40-1 outsiders.

By Kelvin Jones

Follow me on Twitter! @KelvinJonesss

Statistics from:

www.oddschecker.com

www.premierleague.com

Champions League Final 11/12 Summary

After a remarkable night of football seen by millions across the world many Chelsea fans will inevitably be waking up with very sore heads. The Champions League final didn't, for the majority of regulation time anyway, provide much of a spectacle. What happened after the 80th minute however  was football at its most delightful.

Bayern managed 43 shots across the course of the evening, by even their standards 43 is a ludicrous amount. Bayern averaged 15.7 shots per match in the 11/12 domestic season so they were gifted over 2.5 times more chances than normal. Frank Lampard was the Chelsea player who had the most touches of the ball with 97, which was bettered by 4 Bayern Munich players. With 56% of ball possession (with 44% of the games total play occurring within the Chelsea half) and a pass accuracy of 87% (only Barcelona averaged higher than this in all of Europe's top 5 leagues last season), Bayern were certainly on top. But if you watched the game you don't need the statistics to tell you that Chelsea were on the back foot. It was, defensively anyway, a glorious performance from Chelsea. Their shape, as shown by their average positions across the night below, was nigh on flawless.

On only one occasion can I recall Chelsea being caught out seriously due to poor positioning, and that was a defensive lapse by Ashley Cole (and possibly Malouda) to allow Mueller a free header at the back post to score Bayern's goal. Of the 43 attempts on goal by the Munich team 22 were blocked by Chelsea players. 14 of the 22 blocks were by either Bosingwa, Cahill, Luiz or Cole, who performed impressively whilst having to remain disciplined all night.

Chelsea were aided by poor finishing from the "home" side though. Of the 21 shots which managed to make it past a Chelsea player only 7 were on target. The shooting of Arjen Robben was particularly poor, with only 5 of his attempted 15 shots testing the glorious Petr Cech. Mario Gomes had an equally as poor night, penned by many as the man who would win the final for Bayern, he was unable to test Cech all night. In total Gomez managed 5 shots all night and none on target, a far cry from the form she showed in the rest of the Champions League this season. Were Bayern Munich to have finished as they normally would have then it goes without saying that a different name would be on the trophy.

In the 53rd minute Bayern did have the ball in the back of the Chelsea net, but Franck Ribery adjudged to have been offside, a decision which replays suggested was correct, but tight none the less. Were the goal to have stood Chelsea would have been aggrieved, but worse decisions have been made in big games this season (Juan Mata'a ghost goal in the FA cup semi-final against Spurs a brilliant example).

In the 83rd minute Thomas Mueller broke the deadlock when he was afforded a free header at Chelsea's back post. Similarly to how Jamie Mackie scored against City in the boring Premier League final day Mueller headed the ball into the ground and it looped over Petr Cech and into the net. The joy in Mueller's celebration was obvious to see, he thought that he had just won the Champions League final for his team.

When Didier Drogba headed in the equaliser in the 88th minute it appeared, as Gary Neville said, "written in the stars". After the goal Munich did seem flustered for the rest of the first 90 minutes plus injury time. They had already sent on the man mountain Van Buyten to assist them in seeing out the game, showing that they didn't expect Chelsea to sucker punch them.

Going into extra time it still seemed that if the game were to be settled from open play it would be Bayern Munich lifting the trophy. It was simply a case of could Chelsea hold on? And Drogba seemed to answer that question for us after 5 minutes. Having given away a penalty in their semi-final second leg Drogba once again felled an opposition attacker. It seemed certain that a player of Arjen Robben's technique and quality would manage to do what Messi had failed in the semi and score the penalty. But a combination of a poor hit by Robben and a correct guess by Cech kept the score level. At this point I was thinking "if there is a god, he is a Chelsea fan". The rest of extra time passed without incident, meaning Chelsea had to better their performance in the 2008 Moscow final penalty shoot out and they would become the 5th English team to lift the EC/CL trophy.

Just as they had in the match Chelsea went the hard route through the penalty shoot out. After Mata's missed penalty it seemed once again inevitable that Bayern Munich would win the trophy. Alas fantastic penalties by Luiz, Lampard and Cole meant that the miss by Olic put the two teams level with one spot kick left each. One peculiar moment during the penalty shoot out was Manuel Neur stepping up to take a penalty. Whilst Bayern's reserve keeper Butt is renown as a penalty taking goal keeper Neur has no such reputation, none the less he held his nerve and despatched the penalty expertly. Then a rare penalty miss from 27 year old Schweinsteiger, who has been at Bayern Munich since 1998, allowed Drogba to score the final penalty for Chelsea and seal the win for the first ever Champions League winning team from London.

It was a night which defied all logic. Every statistic suggests that Chelsea should have lost by a cricket score, but on the night the stars aligned in such a way that allowed the underdogs (written off by Kelvin pre-match) to lift the trophy. That raises the question, if the 6th best team from England are the best team in Europe and the top two English teams aren't even able to progress to the business end of the Europa League, what on earth will happen next year? But for now it is time to catch my breath after a truly incredible end to the season in preparation for Euro 2012.

By Alex Pointon

Follow me on twitter - @Jewfrochamp

All statistics and the fantastic graphic are from whoscored.com

UEFA Champions League Final: Bayern Munich vs Chelsea

According to the Euro Club Index, only one place separates Bayern Munich and Chelsea; they are placed fifth and sixth respectively. However, after their battle on the Allianz Arena turf tomorrow, I can only see Bayern Munich extending this lead.

Firstly, Bayern Munich have won all seven of their UEFA Champions League games at the Allianz Arena this season. They recorded impressive victories against Manchester City and Real Madrid, and they also destroyed FC Basel 7-0.

But, home advantage may be less effective than predicted. UEFA Champions League finals, in recent years at least, have had an atmosphere dominated by corporatism. Bayern fans will take up 17,500 seats on Saturday evening. On a normal match-day, over 60,000 Bayern fans are present. This may have a psychological effect on the players, as they are not used to this. Psychological factors play a huge part in football, and their effects are often overlooked. Chelsea may be able to exploit this.

Chelsea also have many key personnel ineligible; John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Raul Meireles and Ramires are all suspended. All four players scored en route to the final, and they will be significantly weakened by this. Chelsea will especially miss the leadership qualities of their controversial captain.

With Chelsea’s weakened back line, and Bayern’s formidable strike force of Mario Gomez, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribéry, the Germans are likely to claim their fifth UEFA Champions League title. Although Chelsea memorably defeated FC Barcelona in their semi-final clash, I do not believe that Chelsea can repeat a performance of this magnitude.

By Kelvin Jones

@Kelvin_Jones

Statistics courtesy of euroclubindex.com and whoscored.com