Friday 12 April 2013

Who is going to win the Champions League?


So today, the draw for the UEFA Champions League Semi-Finals were made. The games to be played are Barcelona vs Bayern Munich and Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund. With only these 4 teams, two from Spain and two from Germany, remaining, now would seem the ideal time to make an educated decision on who is actually going to win the tournament. To do this, I have compiled a table to compare the teams’ performances and squads.


Borussia Dortmund
Bayern Munich
Real Madrid
Barcelona
League Position
2nd with 55 points
1st with 75 points
2nd with 65 points
1st with 78 points
Total Market Value
£225 million
£380 million
£525 million
£530 million
Most Valuable Player
Mario Gotze
£37 million
Franck Ribery
£37 million
Cristiano Ronaldo
£88 million
Lionel Messi
£105 million
Form in last 10 games (all competitions)
DLWWLWWDWW
WWWWLWWWWW
WWWWWWDWWL
WLLWWWDDWD
Goals Scored in UCL this season
19
22
23
18
WDL record in UCL this season
6-4-0
7-1-2
5-3-2
5-3-2
Discipline in UCL this season (Y/R)
9/0
24/1
18/2
19/1
European Pedigree (Includes European Cup Wins as UCL)
UCL Winners: 1997
UEFA Cup Runners Up:
1993, 2001
UCL Winners:
1974, 1975, 1976, 2001
UEFA Cup Winners:
1996
UCL Winners:
1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1966, 1998, 2000, 2002
UCL Runners Up:
1962, 1964, 1981
UEFA Cup Winners:
1985, 1986
UCL Winners:
1992, 2006, 2009, 2011
UCL Runners Up:
1961, 1986, 1994


Clearly, the remaining four teams are fairly evenly matched, with each team having its own strong point. Munich are in the best run of form, having lost only once in their last ten games, the defeat coming against Arsenal in the Champion’s League last 16. Dortmund, however, have the best record in this year’s competition, being the only team in the last four yet to have lost a game. Real Madrid obviously have the European pedigree, having won the tournament more times than any other team. Barcelona’s advantage, for me, lies with Messi. He is capable of winning the tournament single-handedly, as demonstrated by his game changing substitute appearance against PSG in the quarter-finals.

However, to consider who is best placed to win the competition, we must also examine who is playing who. Barcelona vs Bayern Munich would seem to be the tougher of the two games, with these being many people’s pre-tournament favourites. I’m sure it will be a tense game over the two legs, but I personally feel that Barcelona will be able to edge out Munich in their home tie at the Camp Nou. Having seen Barcelona wipe AC Milan out 4-0 at home, I see no reason why a similarly impressive Barcelona display could not happen against Munich. However, I would imagine Munich would win their home tie, but I still see Barcelona winning out over both legs.

The second semi-final would seem far more easily settled. Madrid are the clear favourites to win over both legs, with Dortmund having been considered as outsiders to get this far in the tournament, at the cost of sides with perhaps greater pedigree such as many of the English or Italian sides. That said, Dortmund have shown great resilience so far in the competition, they came from behind against Malaga in the quarter-finals to win in injury time, and it is no mean feat to play 10 UCL games and not lose a single match. Madrid, do overall have a deeper squad, with a larger range of talent and Ronaldo. He is not a player to be ignored, and like Messi, can single-handedly win games.

This brings us to a final that I predict will be Barcelona vs Real Madrid, to be hosted at Wembley. I think that this final encounter will be won by Madrid. In the last 10 iterations of El Clasico, Real Madrid have won 4, Barcelona have won 3 and 3 have ended in stalemate. However, of the last 5, 3 have been Madrid wins, and the other two were drawn. This shows that Madrid may have the edge in what is perhaps one of the most hotly contested rivalries in European Football, and this is the reason why Real Madrid are going to win the 2013 UEFA Champions League (in my opinion, I can’t say what the other chaps think).

By Paddy Milnes

Follows us on Twitter: @chapstalkfootball @thepaddy

Statistics from:
Transfermarkt.com
Uefa.com
Bvb.de
Fcbayern.telekom.de
Realmadrid.com
Fcbarcelona.com

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