South American football - Is it as good as European football?

After reading a piece about football in the USA I got into a conversation on twitter about the merits of football in regions other than Europe. We concluded that there are some prejudices against non-European football, and I decided to look further into it. Predominantly I was looking for any statistical evidence for or against the assumptions people make.

How do you go about objectively assessing the quality of a football league? That was my first question. The most obvious measure of a league is the quality of the teams who compete to win it. Are Barcelona better than Ajax? Yes, so you could deduce that the Spanish Primera BBVA is a better league than the Dutch Eredivisie. Other things matter too, though. Football is entertainment, and predictability isn't very entertaining. In the Dutch Eredivisie four teams are separated by just four points at the top of the table with 29 games played,  whereas in Spain thirteen points is the difference between Barcelona and Real Madrid in 1st and 2nd. Does that mean The Dutch Eredivisie is better as it is providing a more entertaining finale to the season? Now you see my conundrum. Then there is also the individual quality of the players to be taken into account, performance in continental competitions and possibly even the reputation of the league.

To begin with I focused on South American football, widely considered to be the continent closest to Europe in terms of domestic football. Despite the acceptance that South American teams are good, there are still preconceptions about the leagues. For instance it is a widely held opinion that a player cannot be great until he has left South America and plied his trade in Europe. The most topical example of this would be Neymar, despite a return of 131 goals in 214 games for Santos (0.61 goals a game) and already having gained 31 full caps (and scoring 19 goals in doing so), many protest that he cannot be compared to the likes of Messi, Ronaldo or, for that matter, any player in a top European league until he too is playing in Europe. On the other hand Pele is considered to be one of the best, if not the best, player in history. However Pele played 86% of his official games for Santos (91% if you take into account his "unofficial games"), and the only other continent Pele played domestically in was North America. That is, no matter how interesting, another argument for another time. It does, however, lead me onto my first point. It is impossible to say that South America produces worse players than Europe. When looking at the winners of the FIFA world player of the year awards since 1991 a clear trend occurs...

Continent of nation	Nation	Times won	Players
South America	Brazil	8	Ronaldo (3), Ronaldinho (2), Romario, Rivaldo, Kaka
South America	Argentina	4	Messi
Europe	France	3	Zidane
Europe	Italy	2	Baggio, Cannavaro
Europe	Portugal	2	Figo, Ronaldo
Europe	Germany	1	Matthaus
Africa	Liberia	1	Weah
Europe	Netherlands	1	Van Basten

... the award has been won by a South American on twelve occasions, a European ten times and once by an African. This would suggest that, if anything, the South Americans produce players better than Europeans. Another measure of the quality of an individual player may be the market value attached to that player. The ten most valuable players in the world (courtesy of www.transfermarkt.co.uk) are as follows...

Continent of nation	Nation	Player	Value
South America	Argentina	Lionel Messi	£105,000,000
Europe	Portugal	Cristiano Ronaldo	£88,000,000
Europe	Spain	Andres Iniesta	£61,500,000
Europe	England	Wayne Rooney	£57,000,000
South America	Colombia	Falcao	£53,000,000
Europe	Spain	Cesc Fabregas	£48,500,000
South America	Brazil	Neymar	£44,000,000
South America	Brazil	Hulk	£39,500,000
South America	Uruguay	Edinson Cavani	£39,500,000
South America	Argentina	Kun Aguero	£39,500,000

... According to the (absolutely marvellous) transfermarkt six out of the world's most valuable players are South American and only four are European. Between them the two tables make it difficult to argue that the best South American players aren't as good as the best European players, if anything the evidence suggests that it is the South Americans who lead the way when it comes to producing the world's best players, with Europe only just keeping up. So if South American players are better than Europeans, how are their national teams?

Luckily it is easier to compare the ability of national teams than it is players of differing nationalities. Historically some of the greatest international teams ever have come from both continents (Hungary in the early 50s, Holland in the early 70s, Brazil in the early 70s), however there is no use looking too far into the past. The current FIFA world rankings list the top ten international teams as...

Continent of Nation	Nation	Points
Europe	Spain	1538
Europe	Germany	1428
South America	Argentina	1292
Europe	Croatia	1191
Europe	Portugal	1163
South America	Colombia	1154
Europe	England	1135
Europe	Italy	1117
Europe	Netherlands	1093
South America	Ecuador	1056

... Spain sit comfortably atop the world rankings, whilst only three non-European teams are within the top ten. Whilst Brazil are languishing in 19th with 909 points it is worth noting that due to the hosting the 2014 World Cup they do not have to go through qualification, subsequently missing out on many matches and hence opportunities to pick up ranking points. Nevertheless the top ten international teams is not flattering for South America on the whole. Surprise package Ecuador lie 2nd in the CONMEBOL qualifying group aided by the goals of Caicedo, Benitez and Rondon. Even so there are other south American teams that despite not being ranked within the top ten are still considered dangerous teams to play against. Uruguay ranked 17th have performed worse than expected in their World Cup qualifying and are currently 6th of nine, with only Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay below them. Regardless of form a front three of Forlan, Cavani and Suarez is one that no defence would want to face, even that of current number one team and reigning European and world champions Spain. Whilst international football in South America may not currently be at an all time high but it is worth taking into consideration that whatever teams do reach Brazil 2014 it is likely that they perform better than expected, due to factors such as climate and the location being close to their countries and therefore they are sure to have more supporters at their games. When looking at World Cup winners and runners up since Italia 1990 this is how the continents stack up...

Continent of nation	Nation	Times winner	Times runner up
South America	Brazil	2	1
Europe	France	1	1
Europe	Italy	1	1
Europe	(West) Germany	1	1
Europe	Spain	1	0
South America	Argentina	0	1
Europe	Netherlands	0	1

... Only twice has the tournament been won by a South American side in comparison to four victories by European sides. It is exactly the same in terms of runners up too, with two runners up coming from South America and four from Europe. Just once has a South American side partaken in a third place play off, one Asian team and ten European teams. The two tables combine to paint a damning picture of international football in South America, not one in keeping with the quality of player I have previously shown South America to produce. Relatively low success within the international game has few excuses, isolated incidents cannot be blamed as the data I have used takes time into account and hence isolated incidents are bound to balance out. There are three reasons I can think of as to why these teams aren't performing consistently on the international scene, firstly South American footballers are scattered across the globe, many playing in different European leagues and some still playing within South America. Most of the highly performing European nations also have strong domestic leagues, this leads to a higher number of players remaining within that division and encourages familiarity with one another as well as benefits such as a more uniform style. Secondly, South America only has a population of roughly 387,500,000 which is just over half (52%) of the European population of 739,200,000. This may explain why they are able to produce the very best individuals, but not the same quantity of very good players to support the truly world class ones. The third possible reason for a lack of form in the international game could be due to their economic states, many of the South American countries are categorised as newly industrialised countries or less economically developed countries, therefore their governing bodies (rather understandably) focus on things other than sports. Even so South American national teams have plenty of room to improve and may even get more respect than they deserve. For instance, who would you rather your international team played in the final of a competition, Greece or Uruguay? I imagine many would prefer that their team played Greece, however Greece are actually placed four places higher than Uruguay in 13th. It is having reached the conclusion that international football in the CONMEBOL region as not reached the peaks it could have done I move onto looking at domestic football in the region.

As I said in the introduction, football is a form of entertainment and predictability isn't usually entertaining. Whilst no matter what the situation, it is enjoyable watching Barcelona weave their intricate passing plays even if you know it's exactly what will happen, speaking by and large it is an open finish to a competition or a real sense of mystery as to who will win a tournament that gets fans excited. It is for that reason that I will look at the finalists of the European and South American continental club competitions since 1990, the Champions League (European cup prior to 1992, and hereafter just referred to as the Champions League) and the Copa Libertadores, in order to gauge how open these tournaments are and the strength and depth of the leagues which compete in them.

Country of club	Club	Times winner	Times runner up
Italy	AC Milan	4	3
Spain	Barcelona	4	1
Spain	Real Madrid	3	0
England	Manchester United	2	2
Germany	Bayern Munich	1	3
Italy	Juventus	1	3
Netherlands	Ajax	1	1
England	Chelsea	1	1
England	Liverpool	1	1
France	Marseille	1	1
Germany	Borussia Dortmund	1	0
Italy	Inter Milan	1	0
Portugal	Porto	1	0
SFRY/Serbia	Red Star Belgrade	1	0
Spain	Valencia	0	2
England	Arsenal	0	1
France	AS Monaco	0	1
Germany	Bayer Leverkusen	0	1
Portugal	Benfica	0	1
Italy	Sampdoria	0	1

The finals of the Champions League in the period have been made up by 20 teams, 14 teams have won the competition and six have lost in the final without having won the competition. Crucially eight nations have had a team reach the final. Before thorough evaluation I will show you the finalists of the Copa Libertadores in the same time.

Country of club	Club	Times winner	Times runner up
Argentina	Boca Juniors	4	2
Brazil	Sau Paulo	3	2
Paraguay	Olimpia	2	1
Brazil	Internacional	2	0
Brazil	Cruzerio	1	1
Brazil	Gremio	1	1
Brazil	Palmeiras	1	1
Brazil	Santos	1	1
Chile	Colo-Colo	1	0
Brazil	Corinthians	1	0
Argentina	Estudiantes	1	0
Ecuador	LDU Quito	1	0
Colombia	Once Caldas	1	0
Argentina	River Plate	1	0
Brazil	Vasgo da Gama	1	0
Argentina	Vélez Sársfield	1	0
Colombia	Atletico Nacional	0	2
Colombia	América	0	1
Brazil	Atlético Paranaense	0	1
Ecuador	Barcelona	0	1
Mexico	Cruz Azul	0	1
Colombia	Deportivo Cali	0	1
Brazil	Fluminense	0	1
Mexico	Guadalajara	0	1
Argentina	Newell's Old Boys	0	1
Uruguay	Penarol	0	1
Brazil	São Caetano	0	1
Peru	Sporting Cristal	0	1
Chile	Universidad Católica	0	1

Opposed to the 20 finalists of the Champions League 29 teams have reached the final of the Copa Libertadores. 16 teams have won in South America, whereas only 14 have won in Europe. The largest difference is in the number of teams who have made the final without having won the competition, 13 teams have been the bridesmaid and never the bride in the Copa Libertadores, over twice the number of teams in the same position in Europe. This is evidence that the South American leagues have greater depth than the European leagues. The next vital statistic from these Copa Libertadores finalists is the number of countries to have had representatives in the finals, it was eight in the Champions League, as a further indicator of more depth in South America nine nations have had teams reach the final. Cynics may say that it is because of a lower quality of football in South America, something along the lines of "it's easier to be a 6/10 than a 10/10". A sensible person, however, can see beyond those sort of assumptions and understand the argument I am trying to put forward. Another attribute of a great league is a worldwide reputation, whilst reputation is difficult to measure directly the thoroughly researched game Football Manager has a reputation score out of 200 within its database for each competition. The reputations for the top division of all of the nations to have had a team represented in their respective continental club competition as well as the Champions League and Copa Libertadores are as follows...

Continent of competition	Nation	Reputation
Europe	Champions League	200
South America	Copa Libertadores	180
Europe	England	180
Europe	Spain	180
Europe	Germany	175
Europe	Italy	170
Europe	France	155
South America	Brazil	150
Europe	Portugal	145
Europe	Netherlands	134
South America	Argentina	130
South America	Mexico	130
South America	Chile	112
South America	Paraguay	110
South America	Colombia	108
Europe	Serbia	108
South America	Ecuador	105
South America	Uruguay	103
South America	Peru	98

... Initially I was surprised by the reputation of the Copa Libertadores, mainly because it gains little media attention in England, and probably in Europe on the whole. However it is fitting that the two continental competitions have the highest reputation, but beyond that the most highly ranked South American league, the Brazilian league, has only three of the eight European leagues below it. However the Serbian league is a bit of an anomaly, Red Star Belgrade were a Yugoslavian team at the time of winning the European Cup in 1991, however since Yugoslavia has broken up and reformed as many separate countries and Red Star now play in the Serbian league. Most importantly five of the selected European leagues have a reputation larger than that of the largest South American. Also the next two chosen European teams (all of those chosen if you ignore the anomaly of Serbia) lie above the second most reputable South American league, the Argentinean league. The two tables so far give the impression that whilst more open and hotly contested than European football, domestic South American football is less reputable and a possible conclusion of that could be that it is of a lower standard. After them two tables I returned to my first quandary, how do you objectively assess the quality of a football league? The UEFA coefficient does this for all European leagues, sadly that is of no use to me though. One interesting system I did find is one implemented by the International Federation of Football History and Statistics. Whilst an organisation I had never heard of prior to researching this piece (and also one who seem to have received a bit of criticism), they have developed the equation in which the total points (determined by wins, losses and draws) of the top five teams are added together in each league and multiplying them by their FIFA coefficients. The top ten leagues according to the IFFHS are as follows...

Continent of league	League	Points
Europe	Spanish La Liga	1283
South America	Brazilian Serie A	1057
Europe	German Bundesliga	1037
Europe	Italian Serie A	1034
Europe	English Premier League	1007
South America	Argentinean Primera Division	919
Europe	French Ligue 1	880
Europe	Dutch Eredivisie	738
South America	Paraguayan Primera Division	713
South America	Chilean Primera Division	712

... The IFFHS rankings reflect better of the South American divisions than the Football Manager reputations do, although that does not mean that either is wrong. It is possible that the leagues are of the quality indicated by the IFFHS table but are just less well know/advertised/televised than their European equivalents resulting in a smaller reputation. None the less South American teams are not to be ignored or laughed at, the English Premier League, often referred to as the best in the world, is not considered as good as the Brazilian league and is only thought to be narrowly better than the Argentinean league by the boffins at the IFFHS. These tables are not definitive thought, and the only way to really tell which club is best is to look at the head to heads between South American and European club teams. The easiest competition to look at is the FIFA Club World Cup. Having been running in its current format for eight seasons the eight winners are...

Continent of team	Team	Times won
Europe	Barcelona	2
South America	Corinthians	1
South America	Internacional	1
Europe	Inter Milan	1
Europe	Manchester United	1
Europe	AC Milan	1
South America	Sau Paulo	1

... Five wins by European teams to three wins by South American teams. Taking into account all of the factors I have used to assess the strength of domestic leagues and teams I feel that the FIFA World Club Cup is about fair in its representation of the two continents. It seems apparent that South American football is more hotly contested than European, this being evident in the number of teams competing for the Copa Libertadores. Despite the excitement caused by sheer unpredictability the teams are, regardless of the fact I wanted to prove otherwise, one step behind the best Europe has to offer.

I have shown that, on the whole, it is more likely for the absolute pinnacle players in world football to be South American than from any other continent. Despite that the international teams perform with far less consistency than those from Europe for one reason or another, having only three teams within the top ten FIFA world rankings. Finally, the club sides and the leagues they compete in are, whilst not maybe quite up to scratch with the elite European leagues, are certainly not to be considered as "Mickey Mouse leagues". It may not be long until staying within South America is a genuine career option for the best players.

By Alex Pointon

Sources include;
Wikipedia
Transfermarkt.co.uk
Official FIFA website
Football Manager 2013 database
International Federation of Football History and Statistics