Sunday 10 March 2013

Crunch time


It is approaching the most exciting time of the season, crunch time, the final straight, squeaky bum time, call it what you like it is certain to throw up surprise after surprise and no doubt controversy after controversy. With Manchester United already clearing space in their trophy cabinet for the Premier League trophy what's left to play for elsewhere in the table?

There is obviously the fight for Champions League football, with nine points separating Tottenham in third and Everton in sixth it seems only realistic that either of them two teams, or Chelsea and Arsenal between them, could start next season in the Champions League proper or in the qualifying stages.

Next there is the sister competition of the Champions League, the "it's not serious until you're into the final stages" Europa League. In 2010 Fulham committed heavily to the competition and it took a dramatic Diego Forlan goal four minutes before the end of the second half of extra time to defeat them. Those with a shot of a taste of Europe include those who I mentioned in the previous paragraph, however as they are currently fourth and fifth Spurs and Chelsea would be disappointed to miss out on the Champions League. Lying below those aiming for the Champions League are WBA just two points off of Everton (having played a game more than those around them), Liverpool, a point worse off than the Baggies and Swansea, already a successful season after a triumph in the League Cup against overachievers Bradford, two points behind Liverpool (also having played an extra game).

The third talking point is the one that always delivers, relegation. Ten points is all that is between Fulham in tenth and QPR at the foot of the table. Despite this it is unlikely that Fulham, Stoke, West Ham or Norwich being dragged into a position where there appears to be any chance of relegation. QPR have a run of fixtures that will give any hoops fan a hope and a squad that, in a parallel universe I could be mentioning them in the above paragraph as Europa League contenders and praising Mark Hughes. However it is "Harry Houdini" who has been called upon to try and save their squad of superstars. Reading, Wigan, Villa and Southampton are all at real threat of starting next season with fixtures against the likes of Huddersfield, Millwall or maybe even the glamorous (and currently League One) sides Doncaster, Swindon or Yeovil.

It is always a risky business making predictions, and as my gambling record shows, I am not especially good at it. But I will hazard a guess at who will come out well and who won't from the positions which I have previously spoken about.

Champions league: No change in the league table here, Tottenham and Chelsea will be third and fourth. Neither team have an easy run in with Chelsea facing up to Spurs, Liverpool, United and Everton and Spurs having to play Everton, Chelsea and City. Sky will love the fixture between Chelsea and Spurs on the 14th of April, but it may well be the game that decides who's third and who has to qualify for the group stages.

Europa league: Arsenal will finish fifth. Everton have matches against City, Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. The other team I can see making a charge for sixth spot is Liverpool, having had a surge of form and having an easier fixture run in (Chelsea and Liverpool on the 4th of May being their decisive games) they stand a real chance of overtaking Everton, and I think they'll do it.

Relegation: I'm going to say it now, I think QPR will stay up. Who will go down? Reading look like they are going down, since a really good January they have failed to make a push up the table. Wigan have a run of fixtures that can help them get points of the board, when their history is taken into account they appear to have enough to remain a Premier League team. The other two team who are most likely to go down are Southampton and Aston Villa. Two recently promoted teams going down wouldn't have surprised anyone at the start of the season, but with a squad full of quality and a brand new manager it seemed inconceivable that they would go down, but now it looks like there will be one fewer ever present Premier League team come the start of next season.

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whoscored.com was used to view the league table and remaining fixtures

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