After
reading a piece about football in the USA I got into a conversation on twitter
about the merits of football in regions other than Europe. We concluded that
there are some prejudices against non-European football, and I decided to look
further into it. Predominantly I was looking for any statistical evidence for
or against the assumptions people make.
How do you
go about objectively assessing the quality of a football league? That was my
first question. The most obvious measure of a league is the quality of the
teams who compete to win it. Are Barcelona better than Ajax? Yes, so you could
deduce that the Spanish Primera BBVA is a better league than the Dutch
Eredivisie. Other things matter too, though. Football is entertainment, and predictability
isn't very entertaining. In the Dutch Eredivisie four teams are separated by
just four points at the top of the table with 29 games played, whereas in Spain thirteen points is the
difference between Barcelona and Real Madrid in 1st and 2nd. Does that mean The
Dutch Eredivisie is better as it is providing a more entertaining finale to the
season? Now you see my conundrum. Then there is also the individual quality of
the players to be taken into account, performance in continental competitions
and possibly even the reputation of the league.
To begin
with I focused on South American football, widely considered to be the
continent closest to Europe in terms of domestic football. Despite the
acceptance that South American teams are good, there are still preconceptions
about the leagues. For instance it is a widely held opinion that a player
cannot be great until he has left South America and plied his trade in Europe.
The most topical example of this would be Neymar, despite a return of 131 goals
in 214 games for Santos (0.61 goals a game) and already having gained 31 full
caps (and scoring 19 goals in doing so), many protest that he cannot be
compared to the likes of Messi, Ronaldo or, for that matter, any player in a
top European league until he too is playing in Europe. On the other hand Pele
is considered to be one of the best, if not the best, player in history.
However Pele played 86% of his official games for Santos (91% if you take into
account his "unofficial games"), and the only other continent Pele
played domestically in was North America. That is, no matter how interesting,
another argument for another time. It does, however, lead me onto my first
point. It is impossible to say that South America produces worse players than
Europe. When looking at the winners of the FIFA world player of the year awards
since 1991 a clear trend occurs...
Continent
of nation
|
Nation
|
Times
won
|
Players
|
South America
|
Brazil
|
8
|
Ronaldo (3), Ronaldinho (2),
Romario, Rivaldo, Kaka
|
South America
|
Argentina
|
4
|
Messi
|
Europe
|
France
|
3
|
Zidane
|
Europe
|
Italy
|
2
|
Baggio, Cannavaro
|
Europe
|
Portugal
|
2
|
Figo, Ronaldo
|
Europe
|
Germany
|
1
|
Matthaus
|
Africa
|
Liberia
|
1
|
Weah
|
Europe
|
Netherlands
|
1
|
Van Basten
|
... the
award has been won by a South American on twelve occasions, a European ten
times and once by an African. This would suggest that, if anything, the South
Americans produce players better than Europeans. Another measure of the quality
of an individual player may be the market value attached to that player. The
ten most valuable players in the world (courtesy of www.transfermarkt.co.uk)
are as follows...
Continent
of nation
|
Nation
|
Player
|
Value
|
South America
|
Argentina
|
Lionel Messi
|
£105,000,000
|
Europe
|
Portugal
|
Cristiano Ronaldo
|
£88,000,000
|
Europe
|
Spain
|
Andres Iniesta
|
£61,500,000
|
Europe
|
England
|
Wayne Rooney
|
£57,000,000
|
South America
|
Colombia
|
Falcao
|
£53,000,000
|
Europe
|
Spain
|
Cesc Fabregas
|
£48,500,000
|
South America
|
Brazil
|
Neymar
|
£44,000,000
|
South America
|
Brazil
|
Hulk
|
£39,500,000
|
South America
|
Uruguay
|
Edinson Cavani
|
£39,500,000
|
South America
|
Argentina
|
Kun Aguero
|
£39,500,000
|
... According
to the (absolutely marvellous) transfermarkt six out of the world's most
valuable players are South American and only four are European. Between them
the two tables make it difficult to argue that the best South American players
aren't as good as the best European players, if anything the evidence suggests
that it is the South Americans who lead the way when it comes to producing the
world's best players, with Europe only just keeping up. So if South American
players are better than Europeans, how are their national teams?
Luckily it
is easier to compare the ability of national teams than it is players of
differing nationalities. Historically some of the greatest international teams
ever have come from both continents (Hungary in the early 50s, Holland in the
early 70s, Brazil in the early 70s), however there is no use looking too far
into the past. The current FIFA world rankings list the top ten international
teams as...
Continent
of Nation
|
Nation
|
Points
|
Europe
|
Spain
|
1538
|
Europe
|
Germany
|
1428
|
South America
|
Argentina
|
1292
|
Europe
|
Croatia
|
1191
|
Europe
|
Portugal
|
1163
|
South America
|
Colombia
|
1154
|
Europe
|
England
|
1135
|
Europe
|
Italy
|
1117
|
Europe
|
Netherlands
|
1093
|
South America
|
Ecuador
|
1056
|
... Spain
sit comfortably atop the world rankings, whilst only three non-European teams
are within the top ten. Whilst Brazil are languishing in 19th with 909 points
it is worth noting that due to the hosting the 2014 World Cup they do not have
to go through qualification, subsequently missing out on many matches and hence
opportunities to pick up ranking points. Nevertheless the top ten international
teams is not flattering for South America on the whole. Surprise package
Ecuador lie 2nd in the CONMEBOL qualifying group aided by the goals of Caicedo,
Benitez and Rondon. Even so there are other south American teams that despite
not being ranked within the top ten are still considered dangerous teams to
play against. Uruguay ranked 17th have performed worse than expected in their
World Cup qualifying and are currently 6th of nine, with only Peru, Bolivia and
Paraguay below them. Regardless of form a front three of Forlan, Cavani and
Suarez is one that no defence would want to face, even that of current number
one team and reigning European and world champions Spain. Whilst international
football in South America may not currently be at an all time high but it is
worth taking into consideration that whatever teams do reach Brazil 2014 it is
likely that they perform better than expected, due to factors such as climate
and the location being close to their countries and therefore they are sure to
have more supporters at their games. When looking at World Cup winners and
runners up since Italia 1990 this is how the continents stack up...
Continent
of nation
|
Nation
|
Times
winner
|
Times
runner up
|
South America
|
Brazil
|
2
|
1
|
Europe
|
France
|
1
|
1
|
Europe
|
Italy
|
1
|
1
|
Europe
|
(West) Germany
|
1
|
1
|
Europe
|
Spain
|
1
|
0
|
South America
|
Argentina
|
0
|
1
|
Europe
|
Netherlands
|
0
|
1
|
... Only
twice has the tournament been won by a South American side in comparison to
four victories by European sides. It is exactly the same in terms of runners up
too, with two runners up coming from South America and four from Europe. Just
once has a South American side partaken in a third place play off, one Asian
team and ten European teams. The two tables combine to paint a damning picture
of international football in South America, not one in keeping with the quality
of player I have previously shown South America to produce. Relatively low
success within the international game has few excuses, isolated incidents
cannot be blamed as the data I have used takes time into account and hence
isolated incidents are bound to balance out. There are three reasons I can
think of as to why these teams aren't performing consistently on the
international scene, firstly South American footballers are scattered across
the globe, many playing in different European leagues and some still playing
within South America. Most of the highly performing European nations also have
strong domestic leagues, this leads to a higher number of players remaining
within that division and encourages familiarity with one another as well as
benefits such as a more uniform style. Secondly, South America only has a
population of roughly 387,500,000 which is just over half (52%) of the European
population of 739,200,000. This may explain why they are able to produce the
very best individuals, but not the same quantity of very good players to
support the truly world class ones. The third possible reason for a lack of
form in the international game could be due to their economic states, many of
the South American countries are categorised as newly industrialised countries
or less economically developed countries, therefore their governing bodies
(rather understandably) focus on things other than sports. Even so South
American national teams have plenty of room to improve and may even get more
respect than they deserve. For instance, who would you rather your
international team played in the final of a competition, Greece or Uruguay? I
imagine many would prefer that their team played Greece, however Greece are
actually placed four places higher than Uruguay in 13th. It is having reached
the conclusion that international football in the CONMEBOL region as not
reached the peaks it could have done I move onto looking at domestic football
in the region.
As I said
in the introduction, football is a form of entertainment and predictability
isn't usually entertaining. Whilst no matter what the situation, it is
enjoyable watching Barcelona weave their intricate passing plays even if you
know it's exactly what will happen, speaking by and large it is an open finish
to a competition or a real sense of mystery as to who will win a tournament
that gets fans excited. It is for that reason that I will look at the finalists
of the European and South American continental club competitions since 1990,
the Champions League (European cup prior to 1992, and hereafter just referred
to as the Champions League) and the Copa Libertadores, in order to gauge how
open these tournaments are and the strength and depth of the leagues which
compete in them.
Country
of club
|
Club
|
Times
winner
|
Times
runner up
|
Italy
|
AC Milan
|
4
|
3
|
Spain
|
Barcelona
|
4
|
1
|
Spain
|
Real Madrid
|
3
|
0
|
England
|
Manchester United
|
2
|
2
|
Germany
|
Bayern Munich
|
1
|
3
|
Italy
|
Juventus
|
1
|
3
|
Netherlands
|
Ajax
|
1
|
1
|
England
|
Chelsea
|
1
|
1
|
England
|
Liverpool
|
1
|
1
|
France
|
Marseille
|
1
|
1
|
Germany
|
Borussia Dortmund
|
1
|
0
|
Italy
|
Inter Milan
|
1
|
0
|
Portugal
|
Porto
|
1
|
0
|
SFRY/Serbia
|
Red Star Belgrade
|
1
|
0
|
Spain
|
Valencia
|
0
|
2
|
England
|
Arsenal
|
0
|
1
|
France
|
AS Monaco
|
0
|
1
|
Germany
|
Bayer Leverkusen
|
0
|
1
|
Portugal
|
Benfica
|
0
|
1
|
Italy
|
Sampdoria
|
0
|
1
|
The finals
of the Champions League in the period have been made up by 20 teams, 14 teams
have won the competition and six have lost in the final without having won the
competition. Crucially eight nations have had a team reach the final. Before
thorough evaluation I will show you the finalists of the Copa Libertadores in
the same time.
Country
of club
|
Club
|
Times
winner
|
Times
runner up
|
Argentina
|
Boca Juniors
|
4
|
2
|
Brazil
|
Sau Paulo
|
3
|
2
|
Paraguay
|
Olimpia
|
2
|
1
|
Brazil
|
Internacional
|
2
|
0
|
Brazil
|
Cruzerio
|
1
|
1
|
Brazil
|
Gremio
|
1
|
1
|
Brazil
|
Palmeiras
|
1
|
1
|
Brazil
|
Santos
|
1
|
1
|
Chile
|
Colo-Colo
|
1
|
0
|
Brazil
|
Corinthians
|
1
|
0
|
Argentina
|
Estudiantes
|
1
|
0
|
Ecuador
|
LDU Quito
|
1
|
0
|
Colombia
|
Once Caldas
|
1
|
0
|
Argentina
|
River Plate
|
1
|
0
|
Brazil
|
Vasgo da Gama
|
1
|
0
|
Argentina
|
Vélez Sársfield
|
1
|
0
|
Colombia
|
Atletico Nacional
|
0
|
2
|
Colombia
|
América
|
0
|
1
|
Brazil
|
Atlético
Paranaense
|
0
|
1
|
Ecuador
|
Barcelona
|
0
|
1
|
Mexico
|
Cruz Azul
|
0
|
1
|
Colombia
|
Deportivo Cali
|
0
|
1
|
Brazil
|
Fluminense
|
0
|
1
|
Mexico
|
Guadalajara
|
0
|
1
|
Argentina
|
Newell's Old Boys
|
0
|
1
|
Uruguay
|
Penarol
|
0
|
1
|
Brazil
|
SĂŁo Caetano
|
0
|
1
|
Peru
|
Sporting Cristal
|
0
|
1
|
Chile
|
Universidad CatĂłlica
|
0
|
1
|
Opposed to
the 20 finalists of the Champions League 29 teams have reached the final of the
Copa Libertadores. 16 teams have won in South America, whereas only 14 have won
in Europe. The largest difference is in the number of teams who have made the
final without having won the competition, 13 teams have been the bridesmaid and
never the bride in the Copa Libertadores, over twice the number of teams in the
same position in Europe. This is evidence that the South American leagues have
greater depth than the European leagues. The next vital statistic from these
Copa Libertadores finalists is the number of countries to have had
representatives in the finals, it was eight in the Champions League, as a
further indicator of more depth in South America nine nations have had teams reach
the final. Cynics may say that it is because of a lower quality of football in
South America, something along the lines of "it's easier to be a 6/10 than
a 10/10". A sensible person, however, can see beyond those sort of
assumptions and understand the argument I am trying to put forward. Another
attribute of a great league is a worldwide reputation, whilst reputation is
difficult to measure directly the thoroughly researched game Football Manager
has a reputation score out of 200 within its database for each competition. The
reputations for the top division of all of the nations to have had a team
represented in their respective continental club competition as well as the
Champions League and Copa Libertadores are as follows...
Continent
of competition
|
Nation
|
Reputation
|
Europe
|
Champions League
|
200
|
South America
|
Copa Libertadores
|
180
|
Europe
|
England
|
180
|
Europe
|
Spain
|
180
|
Europe
|
Germany
|
175
|
Europe
|
Italy
|
170
|
Europe
|
France
|
155
|
South America
|
Brazil
|
150
|
Europe
|
Portugal
|
145
|
Europe
|
Netherlands
|
134
|
South America
|
Argentina
|
130
|
South America
|
Mexico
|
130
|
South America
|
Chile
|
112
|
South America
|
Paraguay
|
110
|
South America
|
Colombia
|
108
|
Europe
|
Serbia
|
108
|
South America
|
Ecuador
|
105
|
South America
|
Uruguay
|
103
|
South America
|
Peru
|
98
|
... Initially
I was surprised by the reputation of the Copa Libertadores, mainly because it
gains little media attention in England, and probably in Europe on the whole.
However it is fitting that the two continental competitions have the highest
reputation, but beyond that the most highly ranked South American league, the
Brazilian league, has only three of the eight European leagues below it.
However the Serbian league is a bit of an anomaly, Red Star Belgrade were a
Yugoslavian team at the time of winning the European Cup in 1991, however since
Yugoslavia has broken up and reformed as many separate countries and Red Star
now play in the Serbian league. Most importantly five of the selected European leagues
have a reputation larger than that of the largest South American. Also the next
two chosen European teams (all of those chosen if you ignore the anomaly of
Serbia) lie above the second most reputable South American league, the
Argentinean league. The two tables so far give the impression that whilst more
open and hotly contested than European football, domestic South American
football is less reputable and a possible conclusion of that could be that it
is of a lower standard. After them two tables I returned to my first quandary,
how do you objectively assess the quality of a football league? The UEFA
coefficient does this for all European leagues, sadly that is of no use to me
though. One interesting system I did find is one implemented by the International
Federation of Football History and Statistics. Whilst an organisation I had
never heard of prior to researching this piece (and also one who seem to have
received a bit of criticism), they have developed the equation in which the total points (determined by wins, losses
and draws) of the top five teams are added together in each league and multiplying
them by their FIFA coefficients. The top ten leagues according to the IFFHS are
as follows...
Continent of league
|
League
|
Points
|
Europe
|
Spanish
La Liga
|
1283
|
South
America
|
Brazilian
Serie A
|
1057
|
Europe
|
German
Bundesliga
|
1037
|
Europe
|
Italian
Serie A
|
1034
|
Europe
|
English
Premier League
|
1007
|
South
America
|
Argentinean
Primera Division
|
919
|
Europe
|
French
Ligue 1
|
880
|
Europe
|
Dutch
Eredivisie
|
738
|
South America
|
Paraguayan
Primera Division
|
713
|
South
America
|
Chilean
Primera Division
|
712
|
... The
IFFHS rankings reflect better of the South American divisions than the Football
Manager reputations do, although that does not mean that either is wrong. It is
possible that the leagues are of the quality indicated by the IFFHS table but
are just less well know/advertised/televised than their European equivalents
resulting in a smaller reputation. None the less South American teams are not
to be ignored or laughed at, the English Premier League, often referred to as
the best in the world, is not considered as good as the Brazilian league and is
only thought to be narrowly better than the Argentinean league by the boffins
at the IFFHS. These tables are not definitive thought, and the only way to
really tell which club is best is to look at the head to heads between South
American and European club teams. The easiest competition to look at is the
FIFA Club World Cup. Having been running in its current format for eight seasons
the eight winners are...
Continent
of team
|
Team
|
Times
won
|
Europe
|
Barcelona
|
2
|
South America
|
Corinthians
|
1
|
South America
|
Internacional
|
1
|
Europe
|
Inter Milan
|
1
|
Europe
|
Manchester United
|
1
|
Europe
|
AC Milan
|
1
|
South America
|
Sau Paulo
|
1
|
... Five
wins by European teams to three wins by South American teams. Taking into
account all of the factors I have used to assess the strength of domestic
leagues and teams I feel that the FIFA World Club Cup is about fair in its
representation of the two continents. It seems apparent that South American
football is more hotly contested than European, this being evident in the
number of teams competing for the Copa Libertadores. Despite the excitement
caused by sheer unpredictability the teams are, regardless of the fact I wanted to
prove otherwise, one step behind the best Europe has to offer.
I have
shown that, on the whole, it is more likely for the absolute pinnacle players
in world football to be South American than from any other continent. Despite
that the international teams perform with far less consistency than those from
Europe for one reason or another, having only three teams within the top ten FIFA world rankings. Finally,
the club sides and the leagues they compete in are, whilst not maybe quite up
to scratch with the elite European leagues, are certainly not to be considered
as "Mickey Mouse leagues". It may not be long until staying within South America is a genuine career option for the best players.
By Alex Pointon
Sources include;
Wikipedia
Transfermarkt.co.uk
Official FIFA website
Football Manager 2013 database
International Federation of Football History and Statistics